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“Omo, this thing is getting serious oh. E be like say make man begin prepare for war in this our obodo Nigeria”
“Which war? Go and calm down, my friend. It is only children that talk about war. The one they started in Ukraine, the whole world does not know how to end it, you are here saying war is coming. Nobody is looking for war in this country. Those who fought in a war will never ask for it. Those of us who read about it do not want it. The people who are asking for war will be consumed by their own evil thoughts. Nigeria will survive.”
“I saw one video in which some people were saying the 2023 elections would be war, and that nobody would be allowed to vote in their part of the country. Gunshots. Bloodshed. Mayhem.”
“Don’t worry. It is always like that. Every election cycle in this country, there are bound to be local and international experts who will tell you that Nigeria is on the brink of disaster. They will tell you Nigeria will tip over the precipice and when that happens, there will be big crisis in the West African sub-region and Africa. But you know what? All of that is civil society, and international agencies funding talk. Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian rule, it has been the same pattern. Election time is chop time. When there is tension in this country, that is when some people cash out. Many people say talk is cheap, but at times like this, it pays to talk, even if the only material in your head is absolute, refined, sawdust. People make noise. Militants cause problems. Thugs cause mayhem. Some die. The majority survive, but in any case, life goes on. Last, last, people find their level. Whatever is going on now, is no different from what I have seen. I want to assure you that we will be fine. You can’t stop all the rogues from doing their quick business.”
“Quick business. What is that? You call the attack on the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission, quick business? In five INEC offices, in four states within months, INEC offices and facilities were attacked. Set ablaze. Permanent Voters cards were stolen. Ballot boxes were taken away by unknown gunmen and arsonists.”
“Has anybody been arrested? Has there been any lead as to the probable causes of the attacks? Are the attackers known or identifiable?”
“No. They remain unknown. But the Inspector General of Police says a combined team of security agents from the police, the military and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps has been deployed to protect INEC offices and facilities in all the 774 Local Government Council across the country, and that the government is ready to prevent INEC facilities from being sabotaged. The National Security Adviser, acting on the authority of the President’s directive also said exactly the same thing.”
“Good, Mr. Current Affairs. I hear you. And since the NSA and IGP hemmed and hawed, what has happened oh? I beg, what has happened? Please tell me and I will share what I know.”
“There have been more attacks on INEC facilities, the most recent somewhere in the East where some people were heard saying that a sit-at-home has been declared and nobody should expect that any campaign or election would be allowed in the South East.”
“You can be sure those guys are on some people’s payroll.”
“Candidly, I am not sure of anything.”
“And I tell you that all these fifth columnists are on a payroll somewhere. You and I wake up every morning thinking of how to make this country better, but there are many out there whose only assignment is to make Nigeria difficult for everybody as long as they can make bloodily, filthy money.”
“Hmm. Wait a moment. An attack on the state headquarters of INEC in Owerri, Imo was repelled, yesterday. Three of the assailants were gunned down. If the security agencies can check the systemic attacks on INEC offices and facilities, I believe, we would be in a good place. I think we should commend those security agencies that stood up to the enemies of progress in Owerri yesterday.”
“You too like to dey commend? Commend what? Three attacks in Owerri in one month, they managed to kill three men, you dey here dey commend What of the attacks in Ebonyi, Osun and Ogun states? . Dem show you one arrange-ee work, you dey commend. What Nigerians want is a security architecture that is impactful and efficient and that can deliver peaceful and credible elections not a sleep and wake up security architecture. Do you want me to tell you the truth? “
“In this country, nobody knows the truth anymore. I do not even know who to trust.”
“I will tell you something”
“Hun hun”
“You know I told you earlier that there are some people in this country who profit from causing problems in this country. When things are difficult and you and I are groaning, they step in and make profits. When COVID-19 began, do you know how many persons in this country who made a fortune from COVID contracts? Do you know how many side-chicks of the botox and bottom variety and other non-state actors who became rich just by getting COVID contracts from corrupt sugar daddies? Or the various shady deals in government corridors at all levels. I will tell you one more thing.”
“What?”
“I sincerely believe that some fifth columnists do not want the 2023 election to take place. I suspect that they are the ones behind all the attacks and breaches across the country ahead of the elections, and that they are happy to expose the incompetence and helplessness of the Nigerian state”.
“I can relate. I suspect so too. Can you even imagine Permanent Voters Cards escaping from INEC offices only to be found in drainage channels? I can understand the fact that some INEC offices were attacked but in states where there were no reported attacks, how did PVCs end up in wrong locations? I won’t deceive you: this country never ceases to amaze me. We may have had democracy for 23 years but I don’t think the people believe in it.”
“What I genuinely suspect is that some people don’t want the election to take place. They would rather have a zero-sum situation, and then the country would have to re-arrange itself, possibly through an interim government mechanism. Some people don’t want Bola Tinubu, Atiku, Peter Obi, Kwankwaso or anybody else. They prefer to scuttle things.”
“What do you mean either Bola Tinubu or Atiku or…? We have 18 Presidential candidates on the ballot. This is the problem in this country and you are part of it.”
“Leave matter. What I am telling you is that something must be going on somewhere, the way we are going. In fact, I had a dream the other night, and my dreams are always accurate.”
“Can we leave dreams out of this? You know I have been listening to you since. But forget about dreams. The truth is that since this country became independent in 1960, Nigerians have been having nightmares, resulting in headaches. That is our problem. Are you sure you don’t have migraine?”
“To tell you the truth, the more I talk about Nigeria, the more depressed I become. Everybody is giving up. Even INEC says the politicians and other stakeholders do not want the new Electoral Act 2022. They are ignoring salient provisions in the law. They are not interested in the provisions about decorous language, peaceful conduct or internal party democracy. Nigeria’s older politicians of the First, Second, and Third Republics must be turning in their graves.”
“The law is what the law-maker says it is. People are ignoring the electoral framework because the security agencies have failed to enforce it. Simple!”
“Who will they arrest? Who will enforce the law? The biggest lawbreakers in this country are the law makers themselves and the Executive arm of government, and their godfathers and friends.”
“I miss that”
“The law cannot work in a country where the law makers have no respect for the rule of law. Do you want to wait until we start talking about security agencies collecting bribe and looking the other way, or when politicians ignore the rule of law as is standard practice around here? Have you not heard that the National Assembly is kicking against the cashless policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)? They want the CBN Governor to come before them and explain why the Central Bank is insisting on cash limits of N20, 000 per day for individuals, a total of N100, 000 per week, or N500, 000 per week for corporate organizations?”
“Don’t mind those lawmakers, they think they will be allowed to collect money and spend money anyhow in the 2023 elections. The Buhari government is saying that will not be allowed to happen.”
“Don’t get over-excited. That is if the fifth columnists allow the election to take place. There is too much vitriol in the air. The politicians are fighting among themselves. They are fighting others. They are even fighting journalists and civil society. When INEC offices are not being attacked, PVCs are stolen and dumped in drainage channels.”
“Don’t put journalists inside oh. Na our work we dey do. Whoever fights journalists will hear his own story with his own ears. Dem never born dem. For where?”
“Stop sounding like a thug. When they go low, you should go higher.”
“I just dey tell you. Anybody wey wan do werey, we go show dem say plenty plenty plenty werey dey oh. Area! Iyalaya anybody. Gbas gbos”.
“Can we discuss something else then? You know I don’t like any kind of stress.”
“I am not putting you under any stress. It is just that this country must be made to work. President Muhammadu Buhari has said he believes in the integrity of the electoral process, and he wants to defend that. He has an obligation to keep his promise.”
“Stop bothering yourself. President Buhari is in the United States drinking tea with the Americans.”
“He is in the US attending the US-Africa Summit. I don’t have a problem with that. Nigeria must always engage with the rest of the world.”
“But Africa must also learn to take full advantage of the outreach from the rest of the world. Everybody is looking for Africa as if we are back to 1885. There is a new Scramble for Africa from Europe and Asia. Russia, China, Japan, France, the UK want inroads into Africa. Now, the US under Biden has rediscovered Africa, second summit since Obama in 2004. But is Africa ready as the Summit begins today in the US, and President Muhammadu Buhari gives a speech?”
“I like the fact that President Buhari is speaking on the first day. It means the Americans know that nobody can joke with Nigerians. Naija no dey carry last. For where? We must come first.”
“Please can you be serious? The US-Africa Summit is not a population contest. There are serious issues at stake. Nigeria is specially recognized out of the 49 African countries that have been invited in order to encourage the country to remain the leading force for stability in the continent. Some countries were pointedly told that they are not good enough for decent company. Go and check that out: Eritrea, Somaliland, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Conakry and Mali.”
“Are those ones countries, when you mention Nigeria?”
“Under the UN Charter, my friend, every country is equal. Size does not matter under international law.”
“In this animal farm in which we all live?”
“Yes. And you must have seen that at the World Cup. No animal is more equal than the other. You prove yourself. You assert yourself.”
“This year’s World Cup is something else, I agree. Saudi Arabia humiliated Argentina 2-1, until those ones suddenly woke up. Morocco sent out Spain in the quarter finals, and beat Portugal, subsequently to become the first African country to reach the semi-finals in the World Cup. They even topped Group F ahead of Croatia, Belgium and Canada.”
“Very significant. A great moment for Africa. But I don’t like it when people say Morocco is not African but Arab and Middle Eastern”
“Leave that matter. Morocco is African. Don’t let Western media mislead you. I think it is paining them that Africa is in the final stages of the tournament. The same week that President Biden is hosting an African Summit, an African country is also in the news at the World Cup. Africa is the next frontier on all fronts. Our only problem is our leaders.”
“Wait. Wait. What is your prediction today? Argentina v. Croatia. Lionel Messi vs Luka Modric.”
“Argentina. Lionel Messi. The God of Argentina will fight today!”
“You are such an incurable loyalist and optimist because you have a woman with Argentine connection?”
“Where is that coming from?”
“Wait. I just saw something on my phone now”
“What?”
“Dele Alake and Bayo Onanuga attacking ThisDay and AriseNews, Prince Nduka Obaigbena and Reuben Abati in defence of their principal, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”
“Please, what are the two spent men, looking for stomach infrastructure in an unscrupulous manner at old age saying?”
“You should read yourself”
“They must be lying of course and destroying everything they ever worked for in pursuit of a mess of pottage. You see, this is the tragedy with Nigeria. Hunger destroys men. It turns them into slaves, blackmailers and pigs and they begin to talk without thinking.”
“Are you saying that you suspect that Dele Alake and Bayo Onanuga working for Bola Tinubu are slaves and pigs?”
“This whole 2023 process is being turned into a brawl. People who need friends and are making enemies where they need friends need to be told that they do not have a monopoly of anything.”
“So?”
“When I subject their latest silly and amateur political talk to closer interrogation, I should be able to answer your question but your guess is as good as mine.”
“My own is just that everybody should just know that Nigeria is more important than their individual ambitions oh, and that election is not war.”
“Look it is time for you to go to church or mosque… my friend. I have work to do. When idiots blab, they must be called to order.”
On March 28, 2022, a Kaduna bound train from Abuja, was attacked at a place called Katari in Kaduna State around 7: 45 pm. As is the case with many things in Nigeria where documentation is poor and students are just about to start learning history again after more than 10 years of the subject being excluded from the curriculum, till date nobody can give the exact figure of the number of passengers on that ill-fated train. What we all know is that it was attacked by rampaging bandits and terrorists, who had rigged up the train line with explosives, and who attacked the train, riding motorcycles and bearing dangerous weapons. The train was less than 20 minutes to its Rigasa station destination. The terrorists opened fire on the hapless travellers. More than eight persons were killed on the spot. About 62 persons were abducted.
Over 20 persons were injured. It was the beginning of a long nightmare involving negotiations with the abductors, the agony of distraught families, and a sad exposure of the vulnerability of the average Nigerian. The victims fell within a broad age and health range: young children, family members, the infirm, the elderly and the aged, including persons who were on various kinds of medication from which they had been cut off simply because they live in a country where insecurity is a problem and human lives have lost value. Those who died included Chinelo Megafu, a young medical doctor, Amin Mahmoud, an APC youth leader and Musa Lawal-Ozigi, secretary-general of the Trade Union Congress. Family relations of the affected persons were thrown into agony. As the Federal Government of Nigeria insisted that it was not prepared to negotiate with terrorists or pay ransom, families cried to high heavens. A few Samaritans led by Sheik Ahmad Gumi, Tukur Mamu, Professor Usman Yusuf and others stepped in to help, even if they created controversies of their own in the process. In the end, the abducted persons were released in batches on April 6, June 11, July 9, July 25, August 10, August 19, and the final 23 regained their freedom on October 6. The Federal Government has tried to claim credit for ensuring the release of the last batch of abducted persons, but what is worth remembering is the needless loss of lives, and the general insecurity in the land which must be addressed - government has the primary responsibility to protect the people.
Following the attack of March 28, the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) announced the suspension of services on the Abuja-Kaduna route to give time for the rail line that had been damaged in parts to be fixed. Two weeks ago, it was further announced that the rail line would now be re-opened for operations. The Minister of Transportation, Muazu Sambo, during an inspection tour of the Abuja station said the train service was originally scheduled to resume by November 28 but that within a week, normal service along the route would re-commence. Minister Sambo was quoted as saying that he had vowed that the trains will not return on that route until the last abducted person was released and that he was happy he had been able to keep that promise. Muazu became Minister of Transportation in July 2022. He only needs to be reminded that in fact before he was posted to the Ministry of Transportation, the Federal Government had tried to re-open that route by May 23. The attempt was greeted by public outcry. It was generally agreed that the government was being callous and insensitive, seeking to sell train tickets while the abducted persons were still in captivity. Affected family members threatened to picket train stations. At the time, Fidet Okhiria, Managing Director of the NRC claimed that the corporation was under pressure to resume operations. Nigerians refused. NRC was forced to change its plan. Now, yesterday, the trains returned along that route.
Mr. Sambo, the Minister in charge, says the NRC is 90% ready. Is the NRC ready? Can the people trust its managers? The Minister further claims that lessons have been learnt. Is he sure that indeed lessons have been learnt? What lessons exactly, if we may ask? Minister Sambo has said a lot of sweet things to rebuild public confidence and encourage people to travel again by rail between Abuja and Kaduna. But how many people will summon the courage to trust the NRC and government? When the first train left the Abuja station at 10 am yesterday, after eight months of inactivity on that route, the passengers were few. People have obviously learnt to be cautious and watchful. We have been told that there would be increased security along the rail line and inside the coaches and that some of the security men would be in mufti. The Inspector General of Police, Usman Baba has to that effect deployed police men, working with other armed personnel, drawn from the Police Mobile Force, K-9, Force Intelligence Bureau, Railway Police Command and the Explosive Ordinance Unit to protect lives and property along that route. But for how long will the security agencies sustain this? And where is the Civil Defence Corps whose primary responsibility is to protect national assets and infrastructure? Why are they not part of the arrangements? The sloppiness of our security operatives has been a major part of the security challenge in Nigeria. Even if the Abuja-Kaduna route is protected, what happens to other railway routes across the country? There have been reports for example of the vandalism of rail tracks in parts of the country, the most vandalized route being the 157-kilometres Lagos-Ibadan rail line. Apart from deploying armed personnel to protect the rail lines and the award of jobs to security contractors, many Nigerians would like to know if there is an electronic surveillance system in place to protect the rail lines across the country. Security in the 21st Century does not simply mean uniformed personnel. In April, the then Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi had disclosed that a proposal for the procurement of a N3.7 billion security surveillance solution was taken before the Federal Executive Council but this was rejected at the Council meeting of September 24, 2021. Questions were reportedly raised about the capacity of the recommended firm for the project. So, what has happened since then? An electronic surveillance system would definitely enhance whatever security measures the Federal Government wants to put in place.
The Minister of Transportation also says as part of new measures to be introduced, that train passengers would have to produce their phone numbers, and National Identification Number (NIN). Are they also going to ask for birth and marriage certificates? The proper identification of passengers should prevent the kind of confusion that occurred in March. The NRC had no proper manifest at the time! Till date the number of passengers on that Abuja-Kaduna train remains a matter of guess-work! Whatever documentation the NRC introduces this time around, every effort should be made to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy that could expose passengers to avoidable hardship. The bigger thing to worry about is the endemic corruption in the operations of the Railway Corporation. And let the point be made that the bandits who attacked the train in March were not passengers. They attacked the train along the route. There is no point treating every passenger like a potential criminal.
We have also been told that there would be no night trains. This is simple common sense. Nigeria is not safe during the day, not to talk of night time. In broad daylight, people get kidnapped, and it is worse during festive seasons when too many bandits become more desperate. The March 28 train attack occurred around 7:45 pm, forcing many people to advise against night train travels. It is in order that the Federal Government has taken the people’s suggestion in this regard. It is all such a pity though. Every means of transportation in this country has become so expensive and risky. The roads are bad, the waterways are dangerous, air travel is costly and even the trains cannot be relied upon. A country of over 200 million needs an effective public transportation system and this must be a major issue for whoever wants to lead Nigeria going forward. In some countries, public transportation is considered so important, there are Ministries of Railways as in India, China, Japan, Bangladesh, Canada and New Zealand.
According to the NRC, the Federal Government lost N113 million due to the suspension of the Abuja-Kaduna train services for over eight months. In another account, the figure was put at N6.6 billion. What has now been decided in typical Nigerian fashion, is that fares would be increased. People died. Families lost their loved ones. Persons were killed in captivity. On one occasion, the bandits showed their victims being flogged. They threatened to kill and maim. One of the kidnapped persons, Dr. Mustapha Imam is an Associate Professor at the Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto. He came home from India to give back to his country and share knowledge. He spent four months in captivity. When he was eventually released, he burst into tears. And now, NRC is lamenting that the corporation lost N113 million. How about lives lost, the hardship that the victims faced, the pain, the agony? The people suffer. They get punished for their suffering. Their only offence is that they are citizens of a country called Nigeria. Fares on the Abuja-Kaduna route would now be N9, 000 for 24-seater coaches, with immediate effect. Empathy, security, and efficiency should be more important considerations for the Federal Government, not profit and greed.
President Muhammadu Buhari hit the nail squarely on the head last Thursday, when he told members of the Senior Executive Course No 44 (2022) of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPPS), Kuru that state Governors are stealing funds meant for Local Governments. The President’s assertion came about a day after the Minister for Budget and National Planning, Clement Agba had accused state Governors of being responsible for the high level of poverty among Nigerians, the majority of whom (72%) live in rural areas, and had been neglected. I felt the Minister of State was grandstanding and fishing for scapegoats.
The simple response to him is that both the Federal and other levels of government continue to fail the people, and that the crisis is that of leadership. But the President’s position on the financial autonomy of local governments is most deserving of further emphasis. One of the many good things that the present administration has done in the area of reform includes the push for the fiscal autonomy of the judiciary and local governments, both of which have been stoutly resisted by vested interests. In May 2020, President Buhari signed Executive Order 10 to enforce the financial autonomy of the states’ judiciary and legislature. The States raised objections and went to court. In February 2022, by a majority of six to seven, the apex court ruled that the controversial Executive Order 10 was in conflict with the provisions of the 1999 Constitution with regard to the powers of each arm of government. The President was adjudged to have acted ultra vires. The Order was an administrative directive that monies meant for the judiciary should be sent directly to their leadership without state governors pretending to manage the funds on behalf of both the judiciary and the state legislatures, while stealing part of same. There was yet another matter. In 2019, the Nigerian Financial. Intelligence Unit had issued guidelines with regard to local governments to the effect that not more than N500, 000 can be withdrawn daily, and that state governments must not tamper with local council funds, and can only act within the purview of the law as transit points. The state governments went to court. But the Federal High Court in Abuja presided over by Justice Inyang Ekwo ruled in May 2022, ruled that the NFIU guidelines were in order to promote transparency and that the plaintiffs (the 36 state governments) had no case. The Court found that the NFIU within its enabling Act had powers to provide guidelines. It was the second time that a court of law would decline the attempt by state governments to resist NFIU guidelines.
The contentious issue is Section 162 (5), (6), (7) and (8) of the 1999 Constitution. Section 162 (6) specifically creates “the State Joint Local Government Account”, and the subsequent amplifications as cited but this has been subjected to so much abuse with state governments and governors turning into supervisors and overlords of the local governments. All the 774 Local Governments in the 1999 Constitution are no better than appendages of state governments. Local government Chairmen are treated like aides of the Governors. The states rely on Section 162 (6) to collect monies due to the councils, and after charging administrative fees decide unilaterally on what they think the boys in the local governments should get. What is sent to them is barely enough to pay salaries, with some small change for the Chairmen and Councillors who by the way are so ignorant and incompetent, they are happy to collect crumbs. They are part of the problem! In March 2022, the National Assembly passed a bill to abolish Section 162 (6) of the 1999 Constitution, but for the bill to become law, it has to be passed by 24 Houses of Assembly. The Governors would not allow that to happen. Every Governor seeks to control the judiciary, the legislature and the local governments. Ours is a democracy of dictators. At some point, the State Joint Local Government Account has to be deleted from the Nigerian Constitution to provide a constitutional safety valve for the third tier of government.
Development springs from the local councils – they are the best institutions to help address the challenge of poverty alleviation, being the level of government that is closest to the people. When they are rendered impotent and ineffectual, the entire governance superstructure is compromised. However, no one should be surprised that some Governors have responded sharply to President Buhari’s latest attempt to put them on the spot. Benue state Governor, Samuel Ortom, David Umahi of Ebonyi State, Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq of Kwara state, Simon Lalong of Plateau State, Dapo Abiodun of Ogun state, and Nyesom Wike of Rivers State have all come forward to protest that they do not steal local government funds. President Buhari cited the specific example of one state Governor whom he refused to name. Whoever that Governor is, he would know himself. This is why every governor must speak up, otherwise we would be right to assume that all the Governors that are keeping quiet are the guilty ones. And that President Buhari knows what he is talking about. Members of the National Union of Local Government Employees (NULGE) were quick to support the President’s assertions. They should go a step further and name the thieving Governors and states that they know. The Supreme Court may have made a technical point about the Constitution but the President can give effect to his own words by prevailing on states controlled by his own party, and they are currently in the majority, to act with integrity and eschew the theft of local council funds. When the time is ripe, Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution should be amended accordingly to put a permanent end to the mischief of the state governments.
Contrary to initial predictions that the on-going FIFA World Cup tournament in Qatar would be the dullest ever in the history of the World Cup, it is in fact defying all such doomsday calculations and turning out to be a most exciting event. The quality of play is very high, the various players are superbly motivated, the fans are enthusiastic and as the tournament progresses, it all gets even more exciting. I find myself glued to the TV set every day to keep abreast of this historic event. Initially, politics almost overshadowed the event, with FIFA having to write to all the 32 teams playing a total of 64 matches in this year’s edition to focus on football, and not the protests that had been planned around the issues of human rights record of the Qatar government, LGBTQ+ rights in particular, and the abuse of 30, 000 migrant workers who were hired to build the infrastructure for the World Cup. The government of Qatar built 7 new stadia, an airport, 100 hotels and a fan park. The politics was so much that seven Captains of the participating European teams in fact announced that they would wear “One Love armbands.” Denmark said they would wear “tone down” shirts. Paris and other French cities threatened that they would not screen the matches in public areas.
The Ukrainian FA also called for Iran to be banned for “systemic human rights violations”. Ahead of the tournament, Qatari authorities had to go after persons who had made fake World Cup trophies – 144 counterfeit trophies were seized, even counterfeit clothes with World Cup logos were seized. In the second week of November, a luxury liner dubbed by The Sun newspaper of London, as HMS WAG, ferrying the wives and girlfriends of England’s World Cup Squad set sail for Qatar. The players, we were told, were banned from setting foot on the massive ship, but nobody talked about the WAGs going on land to visit their men in the hotel bubbles to which they were going to be confined. There was also the issue of the consumption of alcohol. Alcohol consumption is against the country’s Islamic laws and beliefs. Homosexuality also carries a penalty of a fine or seven years imprisonment in Qatar.
The irony is that Budweiser, a beer manufacturing company, with a $75 million deal with FIFA, is the major sponsor of the tournament and has been a FIFA sponsor for about two decades. FIFA first announced that it would be possible to drink beer in fan zones, but it eventually reversed itself and Budweiser was told to serve only zero-Bud within the vicinity of the stadiums. Now, Budweiser says the winning country will take all of its unsold beer from Qatar. FIFA would also later agree that persons who wanted to wear rainbow bucket hats or wrist bands could do so, after the Football Association of Wales protested vehemently over the maltreatment of its fans, but as we now know, Qatar’s officials refused. Even after FIFA’s assurance, fans wearing rainbow colours or symbols were arrested or rough-handled at train stations. The only man no one could do anything about is Tottenham Hotspur superstar, and England’s Captain, Harry Kane who decided to go around off-pitch with an 18-karat, diamond-encrusted, Rainbow Rolex watch worth about $950 million – a massive show of wealth, but Kane simply was protesting in support of the LGBTQ+ community and indicating his angst over FIFA’s threat that any player wearing a One Love Band will get an automatic yellow card. Kane could not wear the armband during England’s 6- 2 win over Iran. Germany also responded last Wednesday before their Group E match kick off against Japan by covering their mouths. Germany’s Interior Minister, Nancy Faeser also wore a One Love arm-band, sitting in the stands, next to Gianni Infantino, the FIFA President. She later took it off, and of course did not get a yellow card - she, not being a footballer.
What Qatar represents in my view, is as I pointed out earlier in a parenthetical, prior comment on this page, now built up into an extended commentary, on what I have seen so far, is the clash of civilizations, between a conservative Middle Eastern culture, and a liberal, hypocritical Western outlook. The hypocrisy of the West is writ large. It is okay to collect sponsorship funds from Budweiser, only to turn around and breach contractual agreements and put the entire blame on the recalcitrance of Qatar. The big question in this World Cup is: should Qatar have been granted hosting rights in the first place as far back as 2010? And now 12 years after the fact, the West is complaining about human rights? This looks like a case of the money is good, bring it, but the culture is not good enough. Hell-ooo! In any case, if the World Cup is a game for the whole of humanity, no part of the world should be discriminated against, and what the people and government of Qatar are showing is that if their money is good enough for France, England and all the other Western countries, the onus is on them to also respect their culture and conservative preferences. One clear point from the politics of the current World Cup in Qatar is that the West likes to overdo things, and wittingly too, as they seek to re-write principles of international law in a manner that should be of interest to teachers and students of the subject.
The most egregious example would seem to be the brazen manner in which the United States Soccer Federation decided to alter the Iranian flag last Saturday and chose to replace the Islamic emblem on the flag with a graphic representing the Group B standings in the FIFA World Cup. The US says it did so “to demonstrate support for the women in Iran fighting for basic rights.” This amounts to interference in the affairs of a sovereign state, but the US as a superior power is accustomed to writing its own rules of engagement with other countries of the world. And hence, it would get away with it, despite Iran and the TASNIM, the official news agency of Iran, saying that the US has violated the FIFA Charter and should be kicked out of the Qatar World Cup. Iran is slated to face off against the US today. Ahead of that encounter, the US is clearly waging a psychological war against Iran by interfering in its internal affairs. FIFA will not impose any sanctions, and thus delicately avoid getting involved in the conflict between both countries that dates back to 1980. It will be recalled however that the Iranian team at the World Cup refused to sing their own country’s national anthem during their first World Cup game in Qatar. The meeting between Iran and the USA today will be another “mother of all games”, a rematch of their 1998 World Cup group stage encounter which Iran won 2-1. The US may have already won the match off-pitch.
Indeed, so political is this year’s edition of the World Cup tournament, even at the group stage level, on and off-pitch that Canelo Alvarez, the Mexican WBA, WBC, WBO and IBF super middleweight boxing champion has vowed that if he sets his eyes on Lionel Messi, he would teach him a lesson or two with his fists about how not to disrespect Mexico. Messi is accused of having pushed aside a Mexico jersey with his left foot as he tried to take off his shoes after a Group C match in which Argentina slammed Mexico 2- 0. Messi’s fans have said that the incident was inadvertent, but Alvarez says he is keeping his fists waiting for Messi. Lionel Messi may be good at playing football, and he has done well for his country in Qatar, matching Diego Maradona’s record but I doubt if his lithe frame can take one small, punch from Alvarez’s big fist! When politics and emotions are mixed with sports, the outcome can be very dangerous. Indeed, in July 1970, El Salvador and Honduras went to war – the Soccer War or the 100-Hour War - over a World Cup qualifying match, triggered by underlying conflicts between both countries.
The World would also forever remember the Captain of the Colombian team in the USA ‘94 World Cup, Andreas Escobar, who scored an own goal and caused Colombia’s early exit from that World Cup. He was the other Escobar. There was Pablo Escobar, not a relation of his, a blood-thirsty drug warlord who was hunted down by the police and murdered. Andres’s offence was that he scored an own goal. Six bullets were pumped into his back at the El Indio nightclub in Medellin, later described as revenge action by gangsters who made heavy losses betting on Colombia at the World Cup. “Football,” as I wrote previously, is “worse than opium”. This year, last weekend, riots broke out in Belgium and the Netherlands, after Morocco, the Atlas Lions, handed the Belgium National team a 2- 0 defeat in a Group F match. A car was burnt down in Brussels. There was violence in Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and Brussels. The police had to use water cannons to disperse crowds and enforce some arrests.
All of this drama about the 2022 World Cup in Qatar notwithstanding, I suspect that what would be remembered hereafter, would not necessarily be the attendant politics, but football itself, and how dominant it is as a game. The tournament is still at the group stage level at the time of this writing, but we have seen much to compel the view that this is turning out to be a remarkable event. History is being made, and it is becoming obvious that there are no underdogs on the pitch. All the 32 participating countries are in Qatar to make a statement and quite a few have been able to do so. Almighty teams, tipped to be potential winners have been humiliated by smaller teams on the FIFA ranking table. Could anyone ever imagine that Saudi Arabia would beat Argentina, 2- 1? But it happened. The King of Saudi Arabia himself found the feat so unbelievable, he had to declare a national holiday to celebrate the achievement. It doesn’t matter how Saudi Arabia fares in this World Cup, it is firmly on record that Saudi Arabia humiliated Argentina! The second major upset after this was the spectacle of Morocco beating Belgium, 2- 0.
The victory was such a major upset it caused riots in Belgium and the Netherlands! In a Group E opener, Germany lost to Japan in a 2 -1 upset. Germany, a football superpower, is now alive, after managing to force a draw with Spain. It now faces a must win match against Costa Rica, as it confronts the prospect of finishing bottom of its group as happened in the 2018 World Cup. Another: Canada was beaten 4-1 on Sunday night by Croatia, but it managed to score its first World Cup goal through Alphonso Davies. Canada may exit the World Cup but what the team has achieved so far- that one goal, within 67 seconds, the country’s first at the World Cup was enough to keep the pubs open in Canada on Sunday. The World Cup is a place to make history, and many are in it for the special experience and the opportunities it offers. Wales showed up in Qatar this year, the first time in 64 years. It would be difficult for Wales to reach the last 16, from Group B, sitting at the bottom of the Group, having played a draw against the USA, beaten by Iran 0 – 2, and now having to face England tomorrow.
At least one commentator has attributed the determination and the revolt against traditional assumptions that we have seen on display at this World Cup to money: the fact that the FIFA World Cup is one of the biggest prizes in sports – the total prize money in Qatar 2022 is about 440 US million dollars, $40 million more than the previous World Cup in 2018. The winner of the tournament will walk away with $42 million. For participating at all, every team will get a minimum of $9 million. The clubs whose players are at the World Cup would get a largesse of $209 million to be distributed across the world. The referees at the tournament will get a base fee of $70, 000 and $3, 000 for every match that they oversee. FIFA already gave every participating nation $1.5 million to aid preparations. But I don’t think what defines the World Cup is money no matter how high the paycheck is, although it must also be admitted that host country Qatar is set to cash out big time! It is something more: the thrill of participation, nationalism and the opportunity to be on the world stage.
The kind of energy that has been put into the game is further demonstrated even by the African teams: Ghana showing that it truly deserves a place in the sun: see what the Black Stars did in the match against Portugal on Nov. 24. They lost 3- 2, but they were formidable. In their match against South Korea, yesterday they fought like true stars, and recorded an impressive win, beating South Korea 3-2! Before then, Morocco trounced Belgium 2-0. Cameroun forced a draw with Serbia, 3-3 in an explosive, thrilling, entertaining encounter. Serbia was leading 3-1, but the Cameroonians roared like lions and cancelled out the deficit. Senegal lost to the Netherlands, 0-2, but they defeated Qatar, 1-3. They have survived to fight again today when they meet Ecuador. Tunisia has not done badly so far also at the World Cup. They played a draw with Denmark, in Group D, and lost to Australia, 0 -1. Their next match is against France on Wednesday. France has so far been a dominant defending champion. Les Blues are proving unstoppable, but this is again a World Cup like no other where underdogs are taking on the traditional champions and burying established reputations. The aggregate gainer is football, and the fact that football has become effectively a science, rather than 22-men running up and down, looking for the goal post. What I have been watching, to speak for myself, since the World Cup began in Qatar on November 20 looks to me like an interplay of artistry, science, and individual talent. It is a glorious testament to the capacity of the human mind and body, and how the world continually reinvents itself in time and space. The underlying and perhaps overt political and ideological currents speak to the inequalities and dissensions at the centre of geo-politics which in the long run are unresolvable given the balance of powers.
But for giving us an opportunity to laugh and get entertained beyond the perils of COVID-19, high inflation, cost of living crisis, and the doomsday predictions of economists, the World Cup is serving a great purpose at an appropriate time. When last, did the entire world laugh and cry along the full emotional spectrum therapeutically, over something as refreshing as sports, the interplay of talents, emotions and national pride? COVID-19 blocked our joys. The World Cup is setting our emotions free. And so, as the beat goes on, let the games continue, and may the best team triumph.
On October 16, 2022, former Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state handed over power at a colourful ceremony attended by big wigs of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and others to Mr. Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, the former Secretary to the Ekiti State Government who emerged as Governor-elect in the state’s June 18 Governorship election. Fayemi had completed his maximum two terms as Governor. He served as Governor, 2010 -2014, and also from October 2018 to October 2022. In-between, he was Nigeria’s Minister of Solid Minerals Development. But since his departure in October, it may be correct to say that Ekiti has not been able to settle down to governance.
The shadow of the past hangs ominously over the present, complicating the crisis that we have seen in the difficulty of appointing/electing a new Speaker for the Ekiti State House of Assembly. Students of Nigeria’s democratic process would readily admit that this is nothing new: getting a new Speaker for a State House of Assembly is always a war-like venture. The House of Assembly, the legislative assembly in the states, performs an oversight function over governments at that level, in addition to making good laws for good governance in defence of the people’s interest. But this is also precisely why governors, Godfathers and other stakeholders are perpetually interested in the leadership of the legislature. No reasonable Governor or his Godfathers would ever allow the legislature to fall into the hands of contrarian figures who in a moment or dangerous self-assertiveness could plot against the Executive arm and wrong-foot the Governor by holding him to ransom, impeach him or make it impossible for him to govern.
In a more recent case in Edo State, police had to take over the Edo State House of Assembly as the members fought for control. For more than two years, 14 elected lawmakers were shut out of the Assembly by their own colleagues. The ensuing drama was sordid, ugly, unbelievable. One fateful morning in August 2020, some unknown persons who have remained unknown two years after the fact, removed the entire roof of the State House of Assembly, and made away with the legislative Mace. There were stories of impeachments and counter impeachments. At the time, Governor Godwin Obaseki had left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and was seeking re-election on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Similar dramas had been enacted elsewhere since 1999. In Plateau State for example, five Speakers of the House of Assembly were either impeached or forced to resign at various times between 2000 and 2021.
In Kogi, Plateau, Imo (four Speakers in three years!), Ebonyi and Enugu and elsewhere, the impeachment of the Speaker has been used as a crude weapon to keep the legislature in check and remind members of the legislature that they are not as independent as the Constitution makes them to be. The sociology of the power game is such that the leadership of the State House of Assembly is expected to be absolutely loyal to the Governor and his power bloc within the state, and that includes the Governor’s Godfathers, supporters and even family members. The State House of Assembly is expected to do whatever the Governor and his people want not to act as a watchdog, barking from the pages of the Constitution. To show how serious this is, it is important to note that in 2015, the Ebonyi State House of Assembly was set ablaze due to disagreements between the Executive and the legislature. Governors do not fold their arms once they perceive any form of assertiveness from the House so as not to have the ugly experience of impeachment as had happened in Bayelsa and Oyo States. The legislative arm of government in Nigeria since the First Republic has indeed been an arena for chaos, motor park politics, scuffles, rancour and free for all fights. It is worse today, and it promises to get even more problematic.
The latest under the present dispensation is the on-going drama in the Ekiti State House of Assembly. Following the death of the former Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, Hon. Funminiyi Afuye, 66, from Ikere Constituency 1, on October 19, 2022, the leaders of the APC in Ekiti State, comprising former APC Governors Kayode Fayemi, former Governor Niyi Adebayo, now Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Chairman of the party, Paul Omotoso and the incumbent Governor, Abiodun Oyebanji had resolved that the unfinished tenure of Afuye, should be completed by someone from his South Senatorial District, precisely Emure Constituency, in order to preserve the slot for the people of that area. The leaders therefore anointed Mrs Bunmi Adelugba as Afuye’s successor. This is ironic considering the fact that the elected deputy Governor, Monisade Afuye is from the same political constituency as the late Speaker of the House, although not a relation of his. Nigeria’s power sharing calculus and political arrangements can be utterly befuddling, and political godfathers thrive on this.
But as it turned out on the floor of the House, the Clerk of the House provided ballot papers, and rejected the voice vote proposed by the elders, and during the vote, instead of a coronation as ordered by the powers-that-be, the Clerk announced two candidates – Aribisogan and Adelugba. The Clerk said members would vote using the ballot papers. Aribisogan who had in fact been mandated after a meeting with all the 25 members of the House to nominate and support Hon Olubunmi Adelugba, emerged the eventual winner. The elders and the party felt betrayed. They refused to recognize him. Aribisogan has quite some history as a perpetual outlier. He got into the House of Assembly in June 2015 on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). For always trying to assert himself, he was suspended from the House from 2016 – October 11, 2018, under the then Governor Ayo Fayose administration. In 2019, he defected to the APC and returned to the House when Fayemi became Governor for a second term under the platform of the APC. In the on-going drama, he and his supporters are again in the eye of the storm.
Yesterday, six days after he assumed the Speakership of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, he was impeached by a 17-member majority. He and 6 others were immediately suspended that is: Gboyega Aribisogan (Ikole 1), Tajudeen Akingbolu (Ekiti West 1), Goke Olajide (Efon) Yemisi Ayokunle (Ekiti Southwest 1), Adeyemi Raphael Ajibade (Moba 1) , Kemi Balogun (Ado 1), and Tope Ogunleye (Ilejemeje). They were suspended without pay with immediate effect. They were further barred from getting anywhere close to 1.5 km radius of the premises of the House of Assembly Complex. The suspended members were also asked to hand over properties of the government in their possession and should they wish to be reabsorbed, they must write a letter of apology to the leadership of the House!
The lawmakers promptly elected a new Speaker, Rt. Hon. Olubunmi Adelugba, as dictated by the powers-that-be. The House also immediately passed the Supplementary Budget for the state, and assigned the 2023 Budget to the Appropriation Committee. One of Aribisogan’s crimes was that he blocked the passage of the 2022 Supplementary Appropriation Bill., in addition to he and his gang, “causing disaffection, tension and apprehension… and importing hoodlums armed with dangerous weapons into the gallery and chambers of the complex.” It was said that in fact on Monday, November 14, Hon. Aribisogan and his men brought juju men to the Ekiti State House of Assembly at 2 am! Rt. Hon. Olubunmi Adelugba, yesterday’s beneficiary of the Ekiti chaos, is now the first female Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly since the return to democracy in 1999. Immediately after her election, Mrs. Adelugba led all her colleagues, the ones not suspended, to the state secretariat of the APC, to officially report to party leaders of the APC in Ekiti State!
What is on display in Ekiti State is absolute tyranny. Ekiti is currently a one-party state. All the members of the State House of Assembly, now 25 after Afuye’s death are members of the APC. But nobody is allowed to have an independent opinion. The party dictates everything, and this is the misfortune that Aribisogan and gang have suffered. I have no dog in their fight, but I assume that for Nigeria’s democracy to grow, it must be possible at both Federal and sub-national levels to allow an interplay of ideas and to allow those who have oversight roles to do their bit without the imposition of portions by party leaders. I am particularly shocked that Kayode Fayemi’s name is being mentioned in connection with the current confusion in Ekiti State, confusion yes, because we may not have heard the last details of it.
After serving as Governor, and as a Federal Minister, what else could Kayode Fayemi be looking for? He is capable of defending himself as robustly as he chooses – I know that – but I guess it is utterly beneath him to behave like the typical Nigerian politician, who after leaving office behaves like a man without a second address. Fayemi should allow Oyebanji to sink or swim on his own steam. He should move on, and let the new players in Ekiti write their own testimonials. He should avoid being dragged into the emerging mess in Ekiti. If he is bored, let him write another book. If he doesn’t want that, let him go on a vacation with Bisi Fayemi, the woman who has stood by him through thick and thin. If that is not enough, let him throw himself into the campaign of the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I understand that may be a bit tough, Tinubu having been surrounded by an evil-minded band of blood-thirsty sharks, sycophants, and intellectual shamanists, but that team can be oxygenated with a few brilliant persons like Fayemi. It is time to rise above this village, ara-oke, back of beyond politics.
Fayemi should remember Aribisogan’s swan song. He said on television: “The majority of members of Assembly voted for me but few of them who felt perhaps I did not follow the directive of the former Governor, Dr. Fayemi thought that they would make the state ungovernable for even the administration. I didn’t have any quarrel with him. I sent a message to him even last night asking: What is happening? Am I no longer one of your loyalists? Why did you not congratulate me? Up till now that I’m speaking, he has not done anything. Otherwise, he has been going around calling our members to go and impeach me tomorrow. That is the truth.”
As of this moment, Aribisogan already has all the answers that he seeks. Let him deal with the truth. It should be of interest to him in particular that former Governor Fayemi has already tried to explain his role in the matter, speaking yesterday through one Ahmad Sajoh of his Abuja Media Office who said: “Fayemi Had No Hand In The Impeachment of Ekiti Speaker”. As he puts it: “We note the allegation by the former Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, Mr. Gboyega Aribisogan, that his impeachment was masterminded by Dr. Kayode Fayemi, the immediate past Governor of the State. We wish to clarify that Dr. Fayemi had nothing to do with the removal of the former Speaker by his peers as this was the internal arrangement of the State House of Assembly. We wish to note that even as Governor, Dr. Fayemi did not interfere with the independence of the House and respected the principle of separation of powers of where the House had freedom to decide on their internal affairs.”
Please, please, and please: even if Fayemi has his hand, nose, legs, mouth and full chest in the matter, do we expect him to say so? Our concern is that the people of Ekiti State do not deserve to be held down by the politics of ego and difference. They deserve better. Ekiti has a very poor population. It is one of the smallest states in Nigeria. It is also one of the poorest. Ekiti is in need of development and leadership. The earlier Oyebanji began to focus on that, the better. On the day of his inauguration on October 16, 2022, he promised to run an all-inclusive government that would guarantee prosperity, abundance, unity and equity and transform Ekiti into a microcosm of development. He needs to be reminded of all those promises in case he has forgotten so soon. The people of Ekiti deserve good governance, not noise, chaos and ego conflicts.
The 22nd edition of the FIFA football World Cup currently taking place in Qatar, the first-ever edition of the World Cup in the Middle East, is causing so much self-inflicted catarrh in the Western media due to the attempt by that wing of media practice to do everything possible to discredit the hosting of the World Cup by the Middle Eastern country. It has been said that Qatar “bought” the World Cup for sports-washing purposes, or that it is all about the money, and questions have been raised about LGBTQ+ rights, the treatment of migrant workers, human rights records of the Qatari government and the legitimacy of the entire event in the desert.
On Sunday, the games began. FIFA had warned before then that everyone should focus on the sports – football, not politics. In the end, I think what would be played up would be the hypocrisy of the West, and how the game itself would drown out every other ancillary matter and create a history of its own, which is already the case. What we may well remember hereafter is not the hypocrisy of the West but the special moments of the tournament. On Sunday, the BBC practically ignored the opening ceremony of the World Cup. Major European countries have vowed not to show the matches in public places. Celebrities like Morgan Freeman and David Beckham who chose to identify with the Qatar World Cup have been vilified. But when it suits them, European leaders in the UK and France do business with Qatar. They even collect gifts from its rulers. They run to the country to look for gas supplies or to sell arms. We live most certainly in an unequal world where some countries believe that they can set standards for others as it suits them. In hosting this year’s World Cup, the Qataris are insisting on their own standards and sticking to them, on their own terms, putting a fresh accent on Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and Edward W. Said’s prognostications in his book, Culture and Imperialism.
The Qataris have insisted that nobody can drink beer or alcohol anywhere within the perimeters of the stadiums. Beer or no beer, history is already being made. Qatar is now in the history books as the first host country to lose an opening match. Yesterday, England walloped Iran 6-2. The Iran team refused to sing their country’s national anthem in protest. They are obviously in Qatar for politics not football. Mane-less Senegal got beaten 0- 2 by the Netherlands. The last time Wales was in the World Cup was 1958. Yesterday evening, it was Wales 1- USA – 1. Football is worse than opium.
One of the major problems that we have had to contend with since the return to civilian rule in 1999, and even long before then in previous electoral cycles and subsequently – 1959, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 more notably, has been the spectre of electoral violence - in the form of killings, attacks, assault, assassination, affray, before during and after elections. In 1965, following the assembly elections in the South West, Nigeria recorded a blow out of violent attacks, characterized in some of the reports as “We tie” or the “Wild Wild West”. It was standard practice in the First Republic for major political parties and leaders to engage the services of thugs, otherwise known as “able-bodied men”. Their job was to protect political leaders, and help rig the votes on election day. This became an established pattern in Nigeria’s elections, which are regarded more by the stakeholders not as a democratic process but war by another name. In 1983, during the Second Republic, there was post-election violence in Ondo State, involving Adekunle Ajasin and Akin Omoboriowo, the ugliness of which is fully captured in Dare Babarinsa’s book on the matter – House of War (2003). The Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) reports that 100 people were killed in election-related violence in 2003, 300 in 2007., and 800 in 2011.
Both the state and the political establishment participated in the promotion of this ugly phenomenon, so badly that it became a standard feature of Nigerian politics. Many of the thugs would eventually after the elections show up as persons of influence, having been rewarded generously by their paymasters with state largesse including political appointments or the Chairmanship of Road Transport Workers Associations, or the management of motor park garages where they run alternative tax collection systems which are deliberately overlooked by the state. Many of the political thugs who do not get rewarded for their efforts or who fall out with the leaders within their cells end up becoming criminals, or a threat to the established order to the extent that there is a connection between Nigerian politics and the criminal underworld. It is for this reason that every election season, politicians are constantly told to eschew violence, and they are made to pledge commitments to uphold reason, decency and civility.
In 2014, Nigeria witnessed ahead of the 2015 general elections, the emergence of a non-governmental organization, the National Peace Committee led by former Head of State, General Abdusalami Abubakar, and Bishop of the Catholic Church of Nigeria, Matthew Hassan Kukah. Today, the leadership of the NPC has been further expanded, and is far more representative of the influential class. Some of the leaders include the Sultan of Sokoto, HRH Sa’ad Abubakar III, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Mr. Femi Otedola, Dame Priscilla Kuye, Archbishop Nicholas Okoh, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, John Momoh, Idayat Hassan, Gen. Martin Agwai (rtd) and Justice Rose Ukeje (rtd). Their core mandate has been the promotion of peace, justice and since 2014, the body has consistently ensured that political gladiators commit themselves to a peace accord, long before the elections. The NPC monitors compliance with the accord. It serves as a strong moral voice in political seasons that are ever so likely to descend into rancour, hatred and bitterness.
In September 2022, ahead of the flag-off of campaigns for Nigeria’s 2023 general elections, the NPC announced that all the 18 political parties on the ballot would sign two peace accords. The first Peace Accord was signed at the International Conference Centre, Abuja on Thursday, September 29, at a ceremony attended by the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Action Alliance (AA) and the Allied Peoples Movement (APM). In a communique dated September 22, 2022, the National Peace Committee announced that “2023 is more than an election. It is an opportunity to serve Nigeria, to defend Nigeria and to uphold her unity and progress…Nigerians should avoid the spread of fake news and uphold the principles tolerance, respect, civility and decency in all public and private conversations and engagements about election and the progress of Nigeria..All political actors, especially their publicity agents and media advisers, should shun personal attacks, avoid insults and incitements; reject the spread of fake news and commit to issue-based campaigns and political rallies in the upcoming 2023 general elections”.
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While the NPC may wield only moral influence, its regular signposting of the importance of non-violent conduct is nonetheless important. Over the years, there have also been concrete efforts to deal with the menace of electoral violence in the relevant laws. In this regard, Part VII of the Electoral Act 2022 deals specifically with “Electoral Offences” which include acts of violence, and the penalties for infractions duly stated therein. It is also on record that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has continued to advocate for the establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission which would place the proper spotlight on electoral offences, reduce the burden on INEC to prosecute electoral offenders, and ensure that electoral offences are dealt with expeditiously. The advocacy for an Electoral Offences Commission has a long history of its own. It must be noted that INEC is one of the strongest supporters of the current “Bill for an Act to Establish the National Electoral Offences Commission and Related Matters 20222”, which was presented for public hearing by the House of Representatives in August 2022. INEC says it wants more successful prosecution of electoral offenders. The Bill was opposed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) which argued that there are already existing bureaucracies that can deal with electoral offences.
The facts suggest otherwise. Existing institutions and bureaucracies have proved incapable of dealing with electoral offences and particularly, the threat and menace of violence. INEC is right with its proposal that there is a need to provide a special framework for electoral offences and the necessary structures to bring those who violate the democratic process to book, no matter how highly placed they may be. It must be admitted that there are certain elements among us in high and low places who do not believe in the idea of Nigeria, who lack the milk of human kindness and decency and who will stop at nothing to place their personal interests/ambition above the country. They simply don’t care. The key target of the electoral process should be to stop such people, and rescue the country from their demonic grips. There is more than enough evidence to prove that this is not one of those lamentation odes. The biggest threat to the 2023 general elections is the threat of violence. The political parties may have signed the aforementioned Peace Accord, but the reality is that they have not seen any reason to imbibe the spirit of the accord. There are laws in place to check electoral violence, but the political gladiators think that it is business as usual. Our fear is that it could get worse, and things could get out of control. The worst part is that the security agencies appear helpless and confused, and that is why they are beginning to sound like preachers!
As at the time of this writing, less than 102 days to the general elections, starting with the Presidential elections on February 23, 2023, I repeat that the threat of violence is the biggest challenge that we all face. INEC has had to lament that 242 polling units in 10 Local Government Areas of Katsina State are at risk due to insecurity. The electoral body has also proposed that it could relocate the voters elsewhere, but even if that option is convenient for INEC, the question to ask is whether or not that would not lead to voter apathy or constructive, inadvertent disenfranchisement of many voters. It is not Katsina alone. INEC has also been a victim of nature-induced violence in many parts of the country, where as a result of floods, many of its offices have been submerged and many facilities destroyed. But the more critical problem would seem to be the organized attacks on INEC offices. In the past week, there were two major incidents: the attack on the INEC office at Iyana Mortuary in Abeokuta South Local Government in Ogun State. The office was set ablaze, reportedly by eight, unidentified persons, and perhaps unidentifiable persons who threw bread soaked in petrol into the INEC premises and lit a bonfire. About the same time in Osun State, a similar group also set the INEC office on fire. The loss is extensive. In Abeokuta, eight generating sets were damaged. Over 65, 600 Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), 904 ballot boxes, 57 election bags 29 voting cubicles were either stolen or destroyed! In Osun state, the resident electoral commissioner, Dr. Mutiu Agboke has said that despite the attack on the INEC office in Ede South LGA, the commission’s sensitive materials are still intact. What is clear, however, is that some law-breakers are out there trying to instill fear in INEC as well as voters and sabotage the electoral process. If this trend continues, the entire 2023 elections will be derailed! INEC needs help.
The political parties are also in trouble. Since September 28 when the campaigns began, Nigerian politicians have been behaving as if this is truly a rumble in the jungle, a Darwinian, apocalyptic struggle for survival. The route to the 2023 general elections in Nigeria has become a season for thugs and architects of violence. The Labour Party, for example has had cause to complain about the harassment of its supporters in Ebonyi, Nasarawa, Katsina and Lagos States. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has protested about attacks on its members and supporters in Kaduna, Port Harcourt, Zamfara and Maiduguri. Other political parties have had cause to complain about how they are denied the opportunity to paste posters or erect billboards or even gain access to the media especially in those states where incumbent Governors insist that the opposition would not be allowed to campaign. This amounts to a violation of the law, but they get way with it. What is even more disturbing is the rise of hate speech and the politics of intolerance perpetrated electronically by a peculiar group of social media bandits who speak without thinking, attack without any iota of civility, and who damage their candidates without sparing a thought for their own vulnerabilities.
The more saddening part of this narrative is that the security agencies appear to be helpless. At a recent meeting of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Electoral Security (ICCES), the National Security Adviser (NSA), Gen. Baba Gana Monguno (rtd) confirmed the seriousness of the situation when he disclosed that with 52 cases of electoral violence in 22 states in one month, it was clear that some hoodlums were ready to derail the election. He should know. He is National Security Adviser. At that event and elsewhere, the security agencies continue to promise that they are “on top of the situation” and that anybody who tries to derail the elections at any stage will be summarily dealt with. But can we trust the security agencies? In Maiduguri, Borno State, the recent attack on the PDP convoy was recorded by journalists who were present at the scene, but the Borno Police Command came out openly to declare that what had become open evidence was fake news. Did the Borno State Police Commissioner attend the Senior Police Officers Retreat in Owerri where President Muhammadu Buhari, before he jetted out for two weeks, admonished police officers to be neutral and professional in the discharge of their duties in the 2023 elections. Mr Commissioner Abdu Umar was probably there and he dozed off when the President was making that point! Many of these guys sleep on duty anyway. And that is why they tell shameless lies. The Borno State Police Commissioner should be summoned by the Inspector General of Police.
We need all the security agencies to be awake and alive as we move towards the 2023 general elections. The country’s security chiefs should stop lamenting and preaching. They should do their work, professionally, and stop whining.
This is turning out to be a horrible year, with the latest house of horror news that now defines Nigeria being the report of a young lady who jumped to her death a few days ago on the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos. Ms Adetutu Adedokun was said to have been a staff of the Department of State Services (DSS). She had only recently been promoted for her sterling performance at work as an unarmed combat operative in her set. In addition to the promotion at work, she got affianced. Beautiful young lady, doing well at work and in her private life. Then everything came to an abrupt stop.
The key story that we have heard is that the Uber driver taking her from the Mainland to the Island said she was quarrelling with her fiancée on the phone, before she asked him to stop the car and she jumped into the lagoon. It is shameful that even the security agencies have been promoting this narrative. One of the problems with the security agencies in this country is that they lack the capacity for intelligence gathering and investigation. They find it too easy to adopt a simple story that is often most suited for pepper soup joints. Suicide is sad. It is an irreversible act of violence against the self. It raises questions about our mortality and why people decide to end it all. More than 72 hours after Ms Adedokun, an officer of the state, died, there have been no solid leads from the state authorities. Not even from the DSS she worked for.
Her death raises more questions in need of enquiry. Who is the Uber driver in question? Why was he so quick to offer an explanation and identify a suspect? Is it standard practice for Uber drivers to eavesdrop on their passengers’ phone conversations? Why did the Uber driver stop the vehicle when he was asked to do so, when there is certainly no bus stop on the Third Mainland Bridge? The Uber driver in this case must not be allowed to go. He must tell the security agencies what he knows. Another question: is it likely that there is a linkage between Ms Adedokun’s work and promotion and her sudden death? What secret state matters was she working on before her death? Where is her fiancee? Has he been called in for questioning?
In recent times, more women have committed suicide in Nigeria. Is there a gender explanation? Before Adetutu Adedokun, there was Afolake Abiola, the Globacom Chartered Accountant. When these incidents occur, we express sorrow. The security agencies do nothing and we all wait till another person dies. Not good enough. Every case of alleged suicide must be thoroughly investigated to establish the truth.
A week ago, President Muhammadu Buhari travelled out of the country on a two-week medical vacation. He is expected back in the country next week. As has been the pattern since he assumed office in 2015, and he travelled on medical vacation eight months later, Nigerians again this time around raised the same concerns about why our leaders are always travelling abroad for medical reasons – they have failed to develop the medical infrastructure at home. In a country that used to be a medical tourism destination for persons as far away as the Middle East in the 70s, it is true that what we now have in the health sector in Nigeria is shameful, indeed the entire social sector is disgraceful. Despite the fact that we have some of the best brains and most talented people in the world, our leaders have to travel abroad for even simple procedures such as tooth ache, because they have failed to provide an enabling environment in Nigeria for excellence.
One senior citizen once told me that an expert who was described as the best in a particular medical field was recommended to him a few years ago, but he would have to go to South Africa to meet the particular specialist. He packed his bags, hopped on to a plane, and headed out. When he got to the South African hospital, the specialist that he was directed to see was a Nigerian. He protested that he did not travel all the way to come and see a Nigerian doctor. He had to be reminded that if he wanted the best consultant for his medical condition, he had better submit himself to the Nigerian! This is not an apocryphal tale: it is a fitting description of what has happened to Nigeria in virtually all fields of human endeavour be it sports or prostitution.
Hence, when the issue of the President travelling again for medical reasons came up, I thought we had been on this matter for too long. One, his handlers have told us that he had been consulting doctors in the United Kingdom long before he became Nigerian President, and that it would be unfair to expect him to change his doctors for populist reasons. His health has indeed been an issue, prompting many Nigerians to insist that given the experience of Presidential illness under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and now under President Muhammadu Buhari, presidential aspirants must be made to submit their certificates of medical fitness before aspiring to the highest office in the land. Since 2015, President Buhari has spent over 212 days abroad for medical reasons. In 2017 alone, he first travelled for 50 days, and then went back a second time for 104 days. In-between, the President has travelled for various periods of six, 15 or 12 days, and longer, with his trips having to be extended on more than one occasion.
I have had cause to argue that Presidents are human beings too. They can fall sick like other human beings. They and their families would also want them alive, and may seek medical care where they hope they can get the best. Besides, the President is 79. When Nigerians vote for an elderly man as President, they should very well expect that certain things come with old age, even if young men can also fall sick. The thing about democracy is that how a people choose their leaders has its direct consequences. To the delight of his family and supporters, however, President Buhari has managed to find the strength to remain on his feet and do two terms in office. In another 100 days, his successor would most likely have been known and he’d begin to pack out of the Presidential Villa. A new President would be sworn in, and he and his family would pack their own bags into the many rooms in the Villa. Nigerians would be left with the pains and gains of the Buhari administration. I hope we have learnt our lessons.
But there would be one lingering matter, to cut a long story short: how the Buhari administration handled the matter of presidential absence. We have seen in this regard, under this administration routine violations of the Constitutional order so frequently, we simply got used to it. It is an aberration that should not continue because it amounts to utter disregard for the rule of law. Every President takes an oath of office to defend the rule of law and the Constitution. The office of the Attorney General of the Federation exists to guide the government of the day about the constitutional order. When a government breaks the law, no matter how small, it is unacceptable from a principled stand. As Presidential candidates are now busy on the campaign trail, one question that they must be asked is whether or not in the event of absence from office, they would be willing to hand over power to their Vice President as required by law. Here is what the law says:
Section 145(1): “Whenever the President is proceeding on vacation or is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, he SHALL transmit a written declaration to the president of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives to that effect, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, the Vice President shall perform the functions of the President as Acting President”.
This is a very clear, unambiguous and direct constitutional provision. Lawyers understand that when the words used in the Constitution are clear and unambiguous, they must be interpreted in a literal sense. The use of the word “shall” by the framers of the Constitution also means that the command of the law is obligatory, not discretionary. Whereas Section 5 of the Constitution vests Executive powers in the President, the same constitution in parts defines circumstances under which he cannot exercise absolute powers or attempt to rewrite the law, and one of those regards has to do with when he is absent from office, or incapacitated or he dies. Indeed, Section 145 (2), goes further on the matter of Presidential absence thus: “In the event that the President is unable or fails to transmit the written declaration mentioned in subsection (1) of this section within 21 days, the National Assembly shall, by a resolution made by a simple majority of the vote of each House of the National Assembly, mandate the Vice President to perform the functions of the office of the President as Acting President until the President transmits a letter to the President of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Representatives that he is now available to resume his functions as President”.
There is nowhere in the extant law that the Constitution says that the President of Nigeria can leave town as he wishes without informing the National Assembly formally and without transferring authority to the Vice President. This created a constitutional crisis in 2010 during the Yar’Adua Presidency when in the face of the terminal illness of President Yar’Adua, and eventual death, the country was left in limbo. The country was dragged through needless tension and controversy as a result. The case has been different under President Buhari because each time he chooses to go AWOL on Nigerians, he still returns, and we all carry on nevertheless, but this does not make his violation of the law excusable. It must be further remembered that President Buhari’s legal advisers have consistently thrown him under the bus by giving him wrong legal advice with regard to either court rulings or the Constitution. The President of Nigeria cannot be above the laws of the land, the same laws that he is sworn to protect under the seventh schedule of the 1999 Constitution.
It is on record that the President has only transmitted power formally to the Vice President twice since 2015 – in 2016 when he proceeded on a 10-day vacation, and once in 2018. Since then, the President simply travels when he wants to and returns as he wishes on either official or private trips. Where the trip is official such as attendance at international conferences, state or working visits, the absence is understandable, but when the President travels for medical reasons for a much longer period, and he is not on duty, he is duty bound to hand over officially to his Deputy. The argument that the President of Nigeria can go away for two or three weeks for private reasons, and govern Nigeria from a remote location amounts to bending the law on its head. He is not allowed to go away without leave or to embark on a frolic of his own. He cannot transfer power by word of mouth either. He must put it in writing. He must be accountable to the Nigerian people.
Nigerians are even more rightly concerned because the present National Assembly lacks the spine or the moral courage to invoke Section 145(2) of the Constitution. This is a National Assembly that is an extension of the Presidential Villa and whose leaders openly confess their loyalty to the Executive arm of government. Some of our lawmakers even go about claiming that they are “adopted sons and daughters” of President Buhari. Is that why they must always look the other way? In more decent societies, their constituencies will demand concrete proof of their adoption! Or “abduction?” And even that does not justify the cherry-picking approach to the rule of law under this administration, which ironically has a lot to show in the area of law reforms and significant legislation, but when it comes to the constitutional order, problems abound.
One reason that has been given is that Vice President Osinbajo cannot be trusted because of the way he “behaved” when in 2018, the President respected the Constitution and formally handed over power to him. It is alleged that he started behaving as if the President would not return. His handlers began to project him as a better alternative. They were all over the media “selling” Osinbajo as a healthier, more energetic, more people-friendly alternative. It was said that the Vice President even had the temerity to sack the Director General of the Department of State Security, a man from Katsina, the President’s own kinsman. To worsen matters, a group of Yoruba leaders visited Osinbajo in the Presidential Villa in Buhari’s absence! That was the last time his principal formally sent any letter to the National Assembly whenever he was away. There are certain forces in the corridors of power who have never forgiven Professor Osinbajo for openly showing enthusiasm or ambition.
This was confirmed when he tried to run for the Presidency on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2022. They led him on and stopped him. What we are dealing with is one of the major omissions in the Nigerian Constitution which does not assign any concrete roles to Deputies either at the state or Federal level. A Deputy Governor or a Vice President is considered “a spare tyre”, to be kept to a side of the vehicle and can only be called to service whenever there is an emergency. When such emergencies occur, it must not be because the spare tyre, jumped out of its place on its own volition, to cause havoc. Vice President Osinbajo is useful when he is called upon to attend meetings and events where he is required to sound brilliant and articulate, but when it comes to the exercise of power and authority, he is closely monitored because he is not expected to do so. This is a “spare-tyre” dilemma, and it is why Nigerians must take a second look at the exercise of Executive powers. In a new Constitution, specific roles must be assigned to Deputies. The talk that “it is a joint ticket” is a foreign concept that does not work here. A Nigerian Governor or President is technically an absolute monarch. We mut correct that.
Many Nigerians now insist on the full disclosure of the medical condition of the President, but really, it is not only in Nigeria that Presidents go extra length to hide their illnesses. Woodrow Wilson didn’t want the American public. to know that he caught the Spanish flu in 1919. Franklin D. Roosevelt was in a wheelchair and also used crutches but he downplayed his physical condition. JF Kennedy was sickly as a child and even as President, he struggled with a cocktail of ailments including chronic back pain. In 1893, President Grover Cleveland disappeared for four days to have surgery secretly on a yacht at sea to remove a tumour. This story is told in Matthew Algeo’s The President is a Sick Man. The whole idea is to project the President as a strong, healthy leader and to prevent the President’s state of health from becoming a political liability. The only difference however is that today, US Presidents do not have to travel to the sea for treatment or go into hiding as President Cleveland did in 1893. In more contemporary times, US Presidents, with the notable exception of President Donald J. Trump have shown greater confidence in disclosing their health condition. In 1985, President Ronald Reagan transferred power to Vice President George Bush for eight hours while he underwent surgery. In 2002 and 2007, President George W. Bush also transferred authority to VP Dick Cheney while he was admitted for a colonoscopy procedure. In November 2021, incumbent President Joe Biden transferred power to VP Kamala Harris when he was admitted into hospital for the same procedure, making her the first woman in American history to act as President even if only for 85 hours! The relevant law in the United States is Section 3 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment which is in pari materia with Section 145 (1) (2) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution.
In Nigeria, it is usually a tug-of-war to get the President or a Governor to hand over power and authority during a period of incapacity or absence. Our problems here include ego, lack of trust, ethnicity, religion, superstition and the menace of the informal power structures in the corridors of power whose promoters tie their destiny like an umbilical cord to the survival of their patron-principal in office. Such characters would do anything and everything to subvert the rule of law. We must decry this. The next President of Nigeria must not at any time go AWOL on Nigerians out of fear, insecurity or both on the grounds of medical vacation abroad. A law-abiding President needs strong legal advisers who are committed to the supremacy of the law, not politicians who bend the law according to the changing vagaries of the weather. The consequence of wanton Presidential violations of the Constitution is impeachment, but who will dare challenge the monarch? Certainly, not a stomach-driven National Assembly.
“My own brother!”
“What’s up men? Have you gone to deposit all the N200, N500, N1,000 notes that you have at home in the banks so you can exchange them for new notes by the deadline of January 31.”
“What is my business with depositing old notes in the banks? I don’t keep money at home. I don’t have the kind of money the Central Bank of Nigeria is looking for.”
“The CBN did not say they are looking for money. They simply want to manage money supply better. Out of about N3.7 trillion in circulation, more than N2 trillion is outside the banking system. The Central Bank wants to call in all of the N3.7 trillion, and then send it back into the system. This is something other Central Banks do every five or eight years. The last time Nigeria printed new currency notes was 20 years ago, and besides, the CBN is just doing its job.”
“Listen to yourself. They just want N3.7 trillion brought back into the banking system. They are not looking for people who are likely to faint if they see a billion Naira cash. Did you not hear the President? He said the people they are looking for are people with illicit money. Those people who hide money inside overhead water tanks, in cemeteries and other corner-corner places. The people who speak in billions, and who cannot take their money to the banks. Government wants them to bring out the money. E no concern me. I no get any illicit money. Na dem dem.”
“The cash component of money in circulation affects everyone. Even your small amount that you have at home, even if it is a few thousands, once it is in the N200, N500 or N1,000 denominations, you have to take it into the bank.”
“But I thought the Minister of Finance has said she is not aware of the policy and that it could have grave consequences.”
“The Minister of Finance does not know what she is talking about apparently. The CBN does not report to her. The CBN is in charge of monetary policy in line with Section 2 of the Central Bank Act of 2007. The Minister of Finance is in charge of fiscal policy, and in any case the Board of the CBN has among its members the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, and the Accountant General of the Federation.”
“But did the CBN Board discuss this plan to print new currency notes?”
“I am not in a position to know. And well, what does it matter? The President of Nigeria has said that the CBN has his backing. Under Section 19 of the CBN Act, the Bank is required to request authorization from the President with regard to three things: its Annual Report, if it wants to invest outside Nigeria, and if it wants to make alterations to the currency. We have heard from the CBN twice that it acted within the province of the law. We have also heard the President publicly telling everyone that the CBN is in order. Please, who is Minister of Finance?”
“You mean who is the constituted authority?”
“I leave that to you to decide”.
“But why the secrecy? Is it that these people don’t trust each other? I understand this same President did the same thing in 1984.We need proper alignment between fiscal policy and the monetary side of things”
“The country’s national currency is a matter of national security. It is not everything that you tell everybody before you take action. In this country, people are always looking for a way to cheat and game the system. If you disclose your plans, they can share with others and before you know it, your proposals will die even before they become policy.”
“Particularly those politicians who have hidden money away to do serious battle during the 2023 general election. We have seen it before: “dibo ko se obe o” meaning vote for our party and prepare a pot of soup today. Stomach infrastructure. Election sandwich. But in any case, politicians keep their money in dollars, not Naira.”
“Nigeria’s currency is the Naira, not the dollar. The dollarization of the Nigerian economy is an indication of fundamental problems in the management of our economy.”
“I will rather have dollar, please”
“But both are connected. The dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world, that is why when the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve raises rates, the effect is felt globally. Those who have money keep dollar, and buy dollar, as a wedge against the Naira, and that is why immediately after the CBN announced the plan to redesign the three currency notes, the Naira immediately depreciated in the parallel market, in less than a week, it has moved from N778 to the dollar to N865 to the dollar, with implications for inflation. This is why many economists are nervous about the cost of the policy.” t
“Ha. What a country!”
“What is funny?”
“The way Nigerians are experts in everything…If the subject is security, everybody is a security expert, if it is a legal matter, even my mechanic would argue that he knows better than judges, and now that the matter is the redesign of the new notes, everybody is now an economist, lawyer and analyst join on top!”
“But people have a right to express opinions about something that can affect their lives. Things like cost, effect on the Naira and the foreign exchange and why now? Because of politics, government is redesigning Naira notes close to Christmas and election?”
“I know, and I think that is why Sheik Ahmad Gumi says kidnappers will start collecting ransom in dollars and that government is about to commit economic suicide by asking people to deposit their money in the banks!”
“Sheik Gumi is an educated man. He is a medical doctor, a retired Captain of the Nigerian army and a respected cleric. But is he an economist?”
“Are you an economist?”
“I don’t go about reading the mind of kidnappers.”
“You don’t get the point. Where were you when Primate Elijah Ayodele of the INRI Church asked President Buhari to sack the CBN Governor because the plan to redesign some dominations of the Naira will not stop terrorism or insecurity. Is that from the Bible or the Primate’s personal opinion? Ah, this country! This was how one prophetess was also quoted copiously by a section of the media saying the reason there is flood across parts of the country is because the goddess of the river is angry.”
“This thing called free speech and its dangers.”
“Let me ask you something? Can the Banks handle the massive pressure that the rush to deposit old notes in the banks will cause? Why is the allotted time for deposit and access to new N200, N500 and N1,000 notes so short? The last time the UK changed some of its currency notes, it gave the people up to one year.”
“I believe that is a legitimate thing to worry about. But you know your country. People will wait till the last minute before they begin to act. I think the CBN needs to do a lot more to enlighten the people. The deadline of January 31st can still stand, then after the election, government can announce an extension. That is the way I see it.”
“But these new notes that everybody is talking about. Will the banks pay depositors with new notes? In this country, the only place you can see new notes is at event centres during weekend parties. People hawk the Naira the way they sell serviette papers and they do so at a premium. But you go to the banks, what you can get is mutilated, smelly notes. What can the CBN do about that? The threat to this economy is not just those parallel market dealers, but the mint Naira merchants on the streets.”
“What I know is that it is an offence to sell the Naira like a commodity, mutilate it, deface it or step on it, but nobody enforces the law.”
“But I hear this time around, EFCC has read the riot act, that anybody that is found playing hanky-panky with money will be dealt with according to the law. In fact, EFCC officers will be deployed to all banking halls to monitor how people bring in money to the banks.”
“That’s funny. How many banks can the EFCC monitor? There is a reporting mechanism in place if you do money transactions beyond certain thresholds. Banks have structures in place to inform the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) or the EFCC. They only need to deepen their infrastructure. By the way, the CBN is hoping that through this exercise, it can deepen financial inclusion and intermediation.”
“I hear the politicians have come up with a plan to delay the redesign of the denominations.”
“Tell me.”
“I understand that there is a case in court challenging the Arabic inscriptions on the Naira notes”
“It is called Ajami”
“Ajami or Arabic. Some lawyers are saying all that needs to be done is to get an injunction to stop the CBN because until the matter before the court is determined, the proposed redesign of the notes will be sub judice.”
“Court?”
“Yes, court.”
“Okay, we are here. We will see. Have you not read that the CBN will not remove the Ajami on the Naira notes? They have been on that matter since 2020. They will still be on it by the time your grandson graduates from college.”
“Well, bros, let us drop matter. I have discussed this matter so much I am beginning to think something is wrong with me. I don’t want to die in their war. If they want to change the colour of money, let them do so. Wetin be my own? I am more concerned about the future the 2023 general elections. INEC has announced that the voters’ register now has 93. 5 million voters and that the register would be displayed and reviewed in 8, 809 wards and 774 local government areas from Nov. 12- 25. Quite a lengthy list of voters – about 9.3 million pages long. How do I go through that?”
“I am sure you can. But what I find interesting about the new register is the demographics: 12. 29 million new voters added to the register out of which about 2.78 million were found to be illegal registrants.”
“INEC said 23 INEC officers aided and abetted the illegal registration. Those persons must be punished!”
“I agree but talking about the demographics, I was going to say that when you look at the breakdown, the largest number of registered voters are young people between the ages of 18 – 34- that is - 76.5% of the total, followed by women – 50.8% and students – 40.8%. It is thus clear that the 2023 general election will be determined by women and youths. And the major battle grounds will be Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers and Katsina which have the highest number of voters. In general, the bulk of the voters are from the seven states of the North West. The political parties have a lot of work to do to mobilize the voters to prevent voter apathy. We must also ensure that INEC gets the Permanent Voters Cards ready for collection and that the people collect them. It is not enough for anyone’s name to be on the voter’s register. You must have your PVC and you must go out to vote on election day.”
“My own is that nobody should tamper with BVAS – the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System that will prevent rigging and manipulation on election day. The days of multiple voting should come to an end, and it is good that INEC has promised that this piece of technology and innovation, an advancement on the smart card reader, would be fully deployed to keep the riggers out.”
“You are correct. On point.”
“I am always on point”.
“No, not always”
“I am on point for example to say that the Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyorchia Ayu had no point boasting that he has the powers to stop Governor Samuel Ortom’s Senatorial ambition and that of others in the Party who may be interested in other positions. He also didn’t have to boast that nobody can sack him. That is provocative. The party Chairman, no matter the provocation should always try to unify his own base and not make divisive comments”
“A man has a right to stand up for himself. Governor Wike and his allies have been bullying Senator Ayu for months. It is now his turn to cry out and fight back.”
“We’re talking leadership. No party chairman can boast that he will stop anybody. The Electoral Act 2022 spells out clearly how an elective office seeker can be stopped. It does not give any God-like powers to the party leader. Besides, a leader is like a refuse dump. The refuse dump does not choose which garbage they throw on it.”
“Is that a metaphor or a proverb? You better talk straight because the young people these days are not interested in any form of round-about thinking. Don’t tell them anything about words and palm oil. No. These ones are the Shawarma generation. They were brought up with groundnut oil, not palm oil!”
“But just see how Wike has attacked the PDP party Chairman telling him that Governor Ortom was his guarantor without whom he could not have been party Chairman. Or Governor Seyi Makinde sending a representative to a meeting between Afenifere and the APC Presidential candidate in Pa Reuben Fasoranti’s home in Akure.”
“Please, I don’t want to comment any further on that Afenifere subject. Let Afenifere resolve their own internal crisis.”
“Afenifere is a conclave of elders. The elders will decide.”
“This is a democracy. They can decide for themselves as individual citizens and as persons who are entitled to one vote. But I abhor group-think, or herd mentality or any intimations of it. People are free to endorse or not endorse whoever they want but the pillar of democracy is the right of the people to make their own informed choice, freely, without let or hindrance.”
“I think I hear sef say that una Baba don go London again for medical check- up oh”
“My friend, are you okay?”
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On September 29, the National Peace committee led by General Abdusalami Abukakar and the Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah organized an event in Abuja where Presidential candidates of the political parties for the 2023 general elections signed an accord to give peace a chance, avoid violence and respect the rule of law and order. It was meant to be the first in a series of peace-building efforts by the National Peace Committee which this year expanded its fold, by involving the participation of key figures in corporate Nigeria including Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Mr. Femi Otedola, and other leaders such as the Sultan of Sokoto, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, Mr. Sam Amuka Pemu and Justice Roseline Ukeje. Founded in 2014, the National Peace Committee has had a strong track record of reminding political gladiators that Nigerian elections or leadership contests are not a do or die phenomena, and should not be so. This is a useful message and mission statement.
It is important, without doubt, that elections are peaceful and that politicians behave decently. In retirement, General Abdusalami Abubakar has dedicated himself to preaching about peace and stability. He offers good service in that regard. He has a good associate in Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, who in every sense, is also a patriot. The inclusion of others over the years is a welcome development, to remind everyone that elections must not result in chaos. The stakes in 2023 appear to be quite high, much higher than in previous elections, and these may well prove to be for Nigerians like no other elections since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
It is unfortunate however and most disturbing that the politicians who signed a Peace Accord in September 2022, and their surrogates as well, are disowning the same accord by conduct, and by their utterances. Since September when the Independent National Electoral Commission blew the whistle that campaigns could begin, in fact before then, and thereafter, there have been reports of violence, intolerance, hate speech, foul language, vitriol, abuse, harassment and general bad faith. The candidate of the Labour party, Mr Peter Obi has had to raise questions about attacks on his supporters in Enugu, Nasarawa, Ebonyi and Lagos states. In the first week of September, gunmen threatened Peter Obi’s supporters in Enugu. The supporters were holding a meeting in Awga community. Four unknown gunmen suddenly showed up around 5.00 pm and opened fire on Obi’s supporters. They shot in the air, and disrupted an on-going meeting. A day earlier some members of the same party were also attacked in Nenwe, in Aniniri LGA in the same Enugu State.
About a week later, Obi’s supporters were again attacked in Ebonyi state. This time, the Nigeria Police was identified as the assailants. In a statement, the Labour Party’s National Publicity Secretary accused the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, of using the police to promote the politics of violence. To add to the evidence, in Abakaliki, Obi’s supporters were said to have been tear-gassed by the police. In October, Obi’s supporters, known as “flag boys” were also brutalized in Lagos. The flag boys were accused of carrying Peter Obi’s flags around Oshodi in Lagos, and they got beaten by thugs working for another political party. They were in fact lucky. There was an attempt to burn them alive! In Nasarawa state, Joshua Alamu who took part in a solidarity sensitization campaign for Peter obi was also attacked. He eneded up in the hospital. The Labour Party again issued a statement asking for protection.
But the Labour party is not alone. When the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)) held its rally recently in Kaduna, the main issue was that the party’s supporters were attacked, and injured. Thugs reportedly invaded the venue of the rally and started beating people up. Both the PDP Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki condemned the incident. The attackers wielded swords and machetes! Before that, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah representing Anambra South in the National Assembly was also ambushed and attacked at Enugwu-Ukwu in Njikoka LGA of Anambra State. He is seeking a Second term in office. We have also heard in this reason, reports of verbal violence, and threats by politicians. In many states of the Federation, opposition parties are not allowed to put up posters or billboards and when they do, the posters are destroyed. In Lagos State, the candidate of the PDP has had to protest that he is being targeted by the ruling APC and its henchmen. Last Saturday, the convoy of the PDP Gubernatorial candidate, Olajide Adediran and his Deputy, Funke Akindele was attacked at the Ikoga Junction area of Badagry Local Government area of Lagos State. Some journalists and other members of the entourage sustained injuries. IN many states, the state-owned broadcast media behave m0re or less like campaign units of the ruling party in utter violation of the National Broadcasting Code.
The growing spate of violence is a bad comment on the letter and spirit of the peace accord signed on September 19 by leaders of the political parties. It shows that our political leaders have not learnt any lessons and would stop at nothing, no matter how heinous to achieve their objectives. We have gone through this route before. Between 1999 and 2007, many politicians were killed in the lead up to election seasons. The assassinations remain unresolved, including the brutal assassination of Chief Bola Ige, a sitting Attorney General of the Federation in December 2001. Others include Marshall Harry, chairman of the Rivers State ANPP, in 2003, Engr Funsho Williams in July 2006, Dr. Ayo Daramola, PDP Governorship aspirant in Ekiti in August 2006, Dele Arojo in Lagos, 2002, Ogbonnaya Uche, killed in his home in Owerri in 2003, Chief Aminasaoari Dikibo in October 2004, Abigail and Barnabas Igwe, in September 2002, Dipo Dina in January 2010, Odunayo Olagbaju, in December Ile Ife in 2001 and Chukwudi Okafor in Umuawukwu, Awka South, Anambra in 2009. to name a few. Nobody deserves to die for seeking to serve his or her country or to participate in the democratic process.
Politics must not mean death or violence. It is in fact terrible that political assassinations are never resolved in this country. It is one of the reasons people refer to Nigerian politics as dirty, and why some of the best persons in society who could make a difference stay away from the political arena. The laws of the land, including the Electoral Act criminalize violence before, during and after elections, in clear affirmation that politicians and their agents must not take the law into their hands, but the reality is that Nigerian politicians think that politics is a do-or-die affair. Hence, they talk violently. They behave violently. They surround themselves with violent assistants, otherwise known as able-bodied men or thugs. Some of the thugs even bear fanciful official titles and wield such enormous influence that would be considered obscene in civilized societies. They kill. They maim. They and their masters have turned Nigerian politics into a criminal enterprise. Politicians need to know that the recruitment of these armed assistants is a double-edged sword. They could turn against you and become your source of problems. Don’t give them drugs or dangerous weapons. It turns their heads.
The big threat as we prepare for the 2023 elections, is beyond ethnicity and religion, this criminality, that is the desperation of the political profiteers and their agents, the thinking that politics is a zero-sum game. The evidence is again writ large in the language of the politicians and the conduct of their supporters. At the signing of the Peace Accord, the Inspector General of Police said openly that the police are ready to keep the peace and protect law and order. It is about six months to the elections and the police and other security agencies are failing the people, and the state. It is not too early to call politicians who are promoting violence directly or vicariously to order. The security agencies know the thugs, their masters and sponsors. To look the other way for selfish gain as is customary during election seasons would amount to using the state and its apparatuses to aid and abet crime. Security agents must stay away from partisan politics. They must maintain complete neutrality otherwise 2023 could turn out as yet another blow-out moment in Nigerian history. It should be a turning point for good and that I assume, is the expectation of all who have the interest of this country at heart. The security agencies must become pro-active and take preventive measures. They must not behave like lawyers, thugs, and associates of politicians who see election season as “chop-time”.
Since I wrote the piece titled “The Floods This Time’ on this same page (ThisDay, Tuesday, October 11, 2022), the situation with the floods have worsened. The reports indicate that over 600 persons have died, about 2 million persons have been displaced. The most shocking report for me was the declaration by some newspapers that former President Goodluck Jonathan’s house in Bayelsa is also heavily flooded and that communities including Otuoke where he hails from have been submerged. One cheeky editor had the temerity to cast the headline that President Goodluck Jonathan is now an Internally Displaced Person (IDP). Editors and their funny attempts to attract the reader’s attention. But I get the point being made, that floods are no respecters of persons: from Kogi to Plateau, to Anambra and elsewhere, houses have been taken over by floods and both the rich and the poor alike are affected.
In the face of natural disaster, or state failure, both the rich and the poor pay the price. We have been told that food inflation would be higher by December, farms having been destroyed by the floods and the harvest season completely turned adrift. The poor and the rich go to the same market. We share a common humanity. So bad is the flood crisis this year that it has attracted international attention including a message from King Charles III of England who has written to express concern and solidarity with the people and government of Nigeria over the loss of lives due to “devastating floods”. Thank you, your Majesty.
But it is painful that we have not seen as much concern from Nigerian leaders. It took the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi suspending his campaigns for the 2023 elections for other political parties to realize that this was indeed a serious issue. In Agege, the other day, a man was swept away by the flood. It is the same story of woe and tragedy in Bayelsa, Anambra, Plateau, Kogi and elsewhere. In Azikoro Government Cemetery in Bayelsa state, corpses were washed out of their resting places. The terrible disaster that is looming is imaginable: health challenges, loss of assets, destruction of properties, a public health crisis. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency and the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET) claim that we have not yet seen the worst. In Lagos state, people living in low-lying areas have been advised to move upland. Will the people listen? We never seem to listen because being Nigerians, we don’t trust persons who work in government. We tend to believe the worst about officialdom.
The truth nonetheless, is that in the face of all of this, not much effort has been put in by the National Emergency Management Agency, the government or philanthropists. In addition to the attention that Mr. Peter Obi, the media and others have drawn to the problem, we have seen some Governors travelling in canoes, donating relief materials and taking pictures. The Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is also scheduled to tour some of the flood-ravaged states. The APC and LP Presidential candidates have donated money. Friends of Senator Seriake Dickson have done so too. The point must be made though that this is beyond politics. Nobody should exploit the people’s plight for political advantages. In 2012, the Jonathan administration set up a Flood Relief Committee led by Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Olisa Agbakoba, SAN. At the time, government provided about N17.6 billion as relief funds to assist states and communities across the country. The Federal Government today needs to intervene even more robustly. And by the way, I omitted an important detail. Just yesterday, we got to hear that “President Muhammadu Buhari has directed the Minister of Water Resources to lead and coordinate with the ministries of environment and transportation as well as state governments to develop a comprehensive plan of action for preventing flood disaster in Nigeria.” The President expects a report in 90 days!
Those who want to lead Nigeria may be enjoying the photo-ops that the flood tragedy offers, but as part of the on-going campaigns, we would need concrete ideas about what each candidate intends to do about climate change, the rainfall that causes floods, the dams that flood the low-lying plains, including the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon. Otherwise, by this time, next year, we would be back to square one complaining about the same problems in typical Nigeria fashion. In 90 days from now, we would probably begin to have an idea.
What is going on in Great Britain right now is ironic. A few weeks ago, we celebrated the same Britain on account of the glory and grandeur of the life, times, example, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II – the country’s longest reigning monarch in history and one of the most influential figures of the 20th and 21st Centuries. But today, the same Britain is the laughing stock of the world, all because of leadership, politics, and mismanagement of the economy. The Empire may have ended, but Britain remains one of the most powerful countries of the world, a country that others look up to, a member of the G7, with London as a major centre of capital and investment in the Eurozone.
But something has happened to them in that same Great Britain - to try an African manner of speech. The other day, the IMF/World Bank, the Bretton Woods Institutions, before and at their annual meeting in Washington DC were forced to express concern about the UK economy and the trickle-down economic policies of the Liz Truss administration – 49p cut in tax rates for the rich, proposed increase in corporation tax, cutting of benefits and spending, and no clear thoughts about how the cuts would be funded – all of which could spur growth, theoretically, but would result in inflation and poverty. The IMF most unusually broke away from tradition and openly criticized a G7 economy. It got so bad that even the Greek Prime Minister is offering to help Britain if it needs advice on how to manage the economy. The German Ambassador in London is also, against diplomatic protocols, putting his mouth in the matter. We can add to this insult upon the injury situation, the fact that President Joe Biden of the United States while buying and licking ice cream at a shop in Oregon, US took time out to comment that the turmoil that Britain now faces was predictable because nobody funds growth. “with unfunded tax cuts.” From ice cream shops to the hallowed halls of Washington DC, Britain has become the butt of jokes with implications for diplomacy, business, investments, leadership and the markets.
But it seems to me that rather than laugh at the current British leadership, there are lessons that can be learnt from their experience, precisely the chaos that the country is currently facing. On this same page, we acknowledged the British and praised the fact that Boris Johnson, former British PM and others had to lose their positions and offices because the system out there resolved that those in positions of leadership cannot set one set of rules for themselves and another set for the people that they lead. Bo-Jo and gang had to go because they used official privilege to break the law, and the people objected. This led to a new round of leadership selection within the Conservative Party. If this were in Nigeria, however, Boris Johnson would still be in office. His kith and kin would have played the ethnic and religious card, in fact, he himself would have hired thugs to break up any attempt to challenge him. But the British held firm and pushed him and all the law breakers out. On this same page and elsewhere, we praised the British when the Tories launched a leadership contest to find a replacement for Boris Johnson as new leader of the party and new Prime Minister. It was a keenly contested race, elimination round by round, which eventually produced four front-runners including Nigerian-born Kemi Badenoch- Chief Femi Adegoke’s daughter- but in the end Liz Truss won, with Rishi Sunak a close second. We felt we had seen democracy at work. The party had decided. The Tories had moved beyond Boris Johnson.
It is in the nature of politics that nothing is ever certain and mistakes can be made. During the Tories campaign, the major issue was what to do with the British economy. The war in Ukraine with Russia had up-ended everything: Britain was faced with a cost-of-living crisis, high energy prices and rising inflation. Liz Truss who became the frontrunner promised to fix the economy by cutting taxes for the rich, scrap planned increase in corporation tax and cut spending; reverse national insurance rise, cut energy bills, delay payment of COVID debt, curtail the powers of the Bank of England, take on the Northern Ireland Protocol, scrape regulations post-Brexit, reduce UK dependence on China and so on. Sunak, who had been Chancellor of the Exchequer, promised that he would also cut taxes, but only after getting runaway inflation under control. He dismissed Truss’s plans as unworkable, supported lower taxes in the long term, promised VAT cuts on energy bills, 4 per cent cut in income tax by 2024, and increase corporation tax. He condemned Truss’s BoE proposals, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, Rwanda deportation plan, and promised not to engage Putin, but he would oppose China, and close down Chinese Institutes. He ruled out second Scottish independence referendum. In the last lap of the race, both leading contestants told 175, 000 voting Tories that they could do the job. In the end, the party chose Mary Elizabeth Truss, 47, former Foreign Secretary and Member of Parliament for South West Norfolk since 2010 as leader of the party and Prime Minister. On September 5, 2022, she became the fourth Tory Prime Minister in six years since David Cameron, 2010 -2016, Theresa May, 2016 -2017, and Boris Johnson, 2019 – 2021.
She has spent only six weeks in office and now, the popularity that brought her to power has vanished. Even Prince Andrew is more popular than her in the polls. If a general election were to be called today, the Conservatives would lose by a landslide, the Labour Party being ahead in many constituencies. How did Liz Truss go so quickly in less than 50 days from being the people’s favourite to becoming so unpopular, a Prime Minister whose political future hangs in the balance, and who may end up as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in British History? Her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng is already the shortest ever serving Chancellor of the Exchequer. He was sacked on Friday as the scapegoat for the turmoil into which Britain has been thrown. Truss has presided over a chaotic Conservative Party conference. She has lost the support of business, investors, members of her own cabinet, and the people. Over the weekend, members of her party told the public that the game was up for her. Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee of Back Benchers was detailed to tell her the truth. It would be a miracle if she survives the crisis, having lost credibility – an important asset for a Prime Minister.
The death of Trussonomics is a cautionary tale. Politicians must learn not to over-promise. The British have proven that you cannot come to the people, promise Heaven and Earth and hope you can get away with whatever you throw at them. Truss promised the people growth. He appointed Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor. But the growth plan in form of an emergency plan, or mini-budget presented by the government simply complicated things: sell-offs in the bond market, uncertainties with the pound sterling, further rise in the cost of living and a gaping black hole in government finance, with a rise in the cost of debts, and mortgage. In a country where accountability is key, no politician can hoodwink the people and play games with the people’s fortunes and future. Liz Truss and Kwarteng could not tell anyone how the huge deficit would be funded. In Nigeria, the story would have been that the critics are jealous or that they are of a certain ethnic extraction. The simple lesson is that politicians must learn not to over-promise. Nigerian politicians promise heaven and earth. They promote manifesto and covenants that even the principal candidate has neither read nor seen. When they are taken up on the issues later, they are ever ready to say they never heard of such a policy. Every major stakeholder in the UK is attentive. Position and power come with responsibility and accountability. Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor whose independence Truss was threatening to curtail is now gloating and blaming Kwasi Kwarteng for “flying blind”. He even had to step in with the Bank’s brief intervention and now he says interest rates would go up higher than expected from 2.3% to 3.5%. He is taking his pound of flesh, as it were. In Nigeria, even in the midst of a similar turmoil, he would have been fired. The system would have found something to hang on his neck and shut him up. Spokespersons loyal to the government of the day would have torn him to pieces with disparaging press releases. But Bailey and the Bank of England are not being targeted because it is clear to the British that Truss and Kwarteng flunked Economics 101 and brought the people greater misery.
Kwasi Kwarteng, the Ph.D in Economic History wonder kid, and brainy master of University Quiz who served briefly as Chancellor has been fired. He had to leave the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington DC earlier than scheduled, and his return flight was one of the most tracked flights in recent history. He had boasted that he was not going anywhere, and that his economic plan was secure. What we have seen is that the job does not belong to him. It belongs to the British people. You may say he has been fired because someone has to take the fall, but the truth is that the British run a system where nobody is rewarded for inefficiency or misconduct. While I understand the position that Truss herself should go, having placed the future of the Conservative party in peril, the point for us as Nigerians is that if this had been in Nigeria, Kwarteng’s position that he was not going anywhere would have prevailed. People in powerful positions in Nigeria behave as if is a hereditary privilege for them to enjoy proximity to power. They get appointed not because of their knowledge or proven competence but because of who they know. When they fail, they are sustained by the same factors. The British system self-corrects because its institutions are strong. The Nigerian system self-destructs because its institutions are either weak, compromised or non-existent.
In the midst of the. political, economic and social turmoil, PM Liz Truss has now gone to appoint Jeremy Hunt as replacement for Kwarteng. Hunt supported Rishi Sunak in the race for the PM’s office. Last weekend, he granted an interview in which he dismantled and buried Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget. Yesterday at the House of Commons, he did further damage. He ditched the government’s mini-budget that was announced three weeks ago. When the PM showed up at the Commons, she was quiet. Jeremy Hunt, who has little experience in economic matters was practically pushing different ideas. On October 31, it would be his duty to present the much-talked about fiscal plan. Hunt’s appointment is the equivalent of running to the friend of your opponent to help you. In Nigeria and other African countries, that would never happen. Our leaders here are so egoistic, they only see the world in a binary scope of friends and enemies. Sacking Kwarteng and bringing in Jeremy Hunt is a last-minute attempt by Truss to save her position. We are reminded of Abraham Lincoln’s Team of Rivals. When you think you are perplexed, look for the best people wherever they may be, including among the ranks of ideological opposites, if possible. In Nigeria, our leaders are only interested in sycophants and rent-seekers. Can you imagine a man who supported a rival being given a Minister of Finance position and then he goes to parliament, as Hunt has done, to throw the same government’s policy under the bus in less than one week of his appointment? I can bet such an appointee’s name will never appear on Nigeria’s national honours list! In fact, his house could be set ablaze. His wife may be abducted!
But would Jeremy Hunt’s recruitment help? Our gut feeling is that so much damage has been done in six weeks, it would take businesses, the market and the sterling quite a while to recover. When a country like Great Britain goes through so much turbulence as we are seeing, then we need to be more careful in these parts. We need to pay better attention to our leadership recruitment process. Our leaders must not only be 21st century compliant, they must be voted for and chosen only because they know what to do. If Nigeria had found itself in Britain’s situation, there would have been too much talk about the fact that Britain is in the hands of young people in their 40s, but the focus there today, is not age, but ideas and the workability of ideas. We need to pay attention to this.
Finally, too many Nigerians have become adherents of “the Japa phenomenon” – the standard euphemism for emigration away from Nigeria in search of greener pastures. The grass they say is greener on the other side, but not always as we can now see. In Britain today, families are worried they won’t be able to pay for gas during winter to heat their homes and keep warm. Many families can no longer afford three square meals. The people are rebelling because they think the government has no clue. Things are so bad that on Sunday, there was power-outage on Elland Road during the match between Arsenal and Leeds. The match had to be delayed for 40 minutes. It could be worse during winter as National Grid and Ofgem have warned. If you want to “Japa” to the UK, you may need to go with your “I-better-pass-my-neighbour generator”. In Paris, France, the people are queuing for fuel, with oil company workers behaving like members of our own NUPENG and PENGASSAN here. So, if you are thinking of relocating to France, it may help to go with your fuel keg and hose. The world has gone mad but leadership still makes the difference.
I was a witness to the menace of flooding, and the consequences, in Nigeria that occurred in 2012, when between the months of July and October that year, 30 out of Nigeria’s 36 states were submerged by flood. By mid-October, 2.1 million persons had been displaced from their homes, over 400 persons died; many homes were destroyed. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) calculated the cost of the losses at about N2.6 trillion, and described the floods as the worst in 40 years. It was not the first time Nigeria would experience floods. After all, before 2012, there had been the famous overflowing of the Ogunpa River in Ibadan, South West of Nigeria, in 1960, 1963, 1978 and notably 1980 - when the Ogunpa Floods left the city of Ibadan completely devastated, and Nigeria with a national disaster. What happened in 2012 was worse than the “Omiyale” phenomenon in Ibadan, as that was known locally.
The standard narrative about the Ogunpa floods was heavy rainfall and the dumping of waste along the Ogunpa River channels. The 2012 narrative was different. This was not simply about the dumping of refuse or the seasonal flash floods, but a national calamity with additional dimensions. The Federal Government of Nigeria led by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had to provide a relief fund of N17.6 billion to various states to mitigate the effect. NEMA offered relief support. Camps were set up across the country to accommodate the affected persons and families. State governments liaised with the Federal Government and the Red Cross to help displaced persons. Food was released from the country’s National Strategic Grains Reserve to prevent hunger and famine as the country’s agriculture supply chain had been disrupted. Farms in Nigeria’s food basket states were completely destroyed. The most affected states were Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and the low-lying plains of Rivers Niger and Benue and the tributaries of both rivers.
We visited the camps: 10 years later, the experience remains dark, and haunting- nobody was spared, the old, the young and infants. The worst spectacle of all was the camp set up in Delta state where we saw people on make-shift hospital beds, with the then Governor of the state, Emmanuel Ewetan Uduaghan, vowing that as a Governor, he had a duty to save lives! One of the explanations we were given at the time was that climate change was a problem, release of water from Nigerian dams, and release of water from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon was also a major cause. It is astonishing, and a reflection of how we never take anything serious, and how Nigerian leaders do not pay attention to critical matters, that in 2022, we are back to the same situation as we had in 2012. Some commentators have even said that the flooding this year is actually the worst ever.
More than 29 states are reportedly affected, including communities along the banks of Rivers Niger and Benue and the Delta region. In Kogi state, parts of the state capital are submerged. Governor Yahaya Bello visiting the communities has been shown riding a canoe. In Anambra State – West and East and Awka North Local Government Areas - over 600, 000 persons have been displaced. In Jigawa, deaths have been recorded in more than six LGAs. In Nasarawa, a 4, 400 hectares of rice farmland cultivated by Olam Agric Farms, worth about US 20 million dollars has been submerged and laid to waste. After 2012, Olam Farms built 52 kilometres of dykes around its farms. Everything has been wiped away. Olam Agric supplies about 25% of rice in Nigeria. Ade Adefeko, the company’s Vice President, External Relations and Stakeholder Management says the damage is so devastating it could lead to food inflation, and that by December 2022, a 50kg bag of rice, a staple food among Nigerians could cost as much as N100, 000 per bag. In 2014, a bag of rice was less than N20,000. As of September 2022, a bag of rice was N54, 000! Five days ago, in Lagos State, the Commissioner for Environment, Tunji Bello, advised persons living in low-lying parts of the state and neighbouring Ogun State like Ketu, Alapere, Owode Onirin, Kara, Agiliti, Odo Ogun, Agboyi, Isheri, Akute and Warewa, to relocate to upland areas because of the threat of floods. Concerned citizens have tried to explain why Nigeria now faces such a perennial problem of flooding.
One reason is that we are in the era of climate change. The global environment has been up-ended by carbon emissions and global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change, a creation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), advises its 195-member countries about the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, and how the impact can be mitigated. But despite the efforts of the IPCC, and civil society stakeholders like 19-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, and American actor, Leonardo DiCaprio, most leaders of the world pay lip service to climate change and its effects. Meeting the target of 1.5 degrees centigrade threshold or below, as recommended by scientists, and as agreed by world leaders under the Paris Climate Agreement requires concerted action on the parts of governments, financial institutions, corporations, the private sector and others, and it is something that we hear about on a regular basis at Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings on climate change. The effect of climate change is measured in terms of how our world is becoming unrecognizable: sea levels are rising, the arctic is getting warmer, temperatures are rising, rainfall levels have changed, nature is changing and becoming more acidic. When global leaders meet at COPs, they make promises and commitments: the last was in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021, the next one – COP 27 is scheduled for November 6-18 2022, in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. The leaders of the world would make the same promises, but action in terms of follow-up is poor and even worse- climate change as is the case with everything else has become an opportunity for politics and competition.
Nigeria is not left out. For more than a decade, Nigerian leaders have always included a paragraph or two on climate change in their statements at the United Nations General Assembly. Most recently at the 75th session of UNGA in New York, President Muhammadu Buhari spoke about the existential threat posed by climate change, Nigeria’s Climate Change Strategy, and climate justice, and the need for financing to mitigate the effects of the climate change. Like his boss, Nigeria’s Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo has also consistently proposed a debt-for-climate-swap deal to achieve an equitable and just energy transition for Nigeria and Africa. In September 2022, the Nigerian Government inaugurated a National Council on Climate Change in pursuit of the implementation of the Climate Change Act of 2021. But the situation in Nigeria is similar to that of many other countries of the world. What we can hold on to is the reality of the dilemma. This year alone, the evidence of climate change has manifested in the form of floods in Aragua State in North Central Venezuela, in Indonesia, in Trinidad and Tobago, India, Australia, Pakistan and Florida, United States and closer home, in Chad.
The second reason that has been offered with regard to flooding in Nigeria is to blame the release of water from the Lagdo Dam on the Benue River in Northern Cameroon. Built between 1977 and 1982, the Lagdo dam was meant for irrigation and the supply of electricity. Nigeria and Cameroon have a bilateral agreement over the dam and its management which is principally that Nigeria will construct a similar dam or embankment on its own side. That embankment located in Dasin Village in Adamawa state has been under construction for close to 20 years. Cameroon fulfilled their own part of the bargain. We failed on our part. International purists can argue that Cameroon cannot keep causing us havoc each time water is released from the Lagdo Dam, but we are not even in any position to reciprocate. The bilateral agreement requires Cameroon to inform Nigeria at least a month earlier before it releases water from the Lagdo Dam. Our neighbours have routinely complied in this regard. As recently as September 13, 2022, Nigeria’s Hydrological Services Agency announced that Cameroon was going to release water from Lagdo dam and that many states along the Rivers Niger and Benue basins would be affected. Information was duly provided but we were in a helpless situation because nobody has deemed it necessary to do anything positive to prevent our foreseeable and forewarned agony. Is it possible to enter into new arrangements with Cameroon? I should think so.
But who will make the effort when we cannot even manage the dams in Nigeria including the ones developed by domestic River Basin Authorities. Each time, for example, water is released from the Oyan Dam under the Ogun-Osun River Basin Authority, parts of Ogun and Lagos State are submerged. When water is released from the Jebba dam, the whole of that axis from Ilorin to Mokwa is flooded. Before blaming outsiders, we must focus on our own inability as a country to manage the environment or nature. The conflict between man and nature is a major existential challenge and it is indeed at the centre of man’s efforts to assert himself or herself as the most wondrous of all Creations and master of the Cosmos. The trajectory of epistemology has shown man’s limitations and a constant reminder that he is indeed, only a part of the Universe and not its master, but in other parts of the world, man’s perpetual search for meaning and dominance is the historification of the world. Here in Africa, and many underdeveloped parts, we do not try enough. We blame God for everything. We resign to fate.
Every year, government agencies tell us that there will be bad weather, heavy rainfall, and floods, but nobody does anything. The rainy season comes, floods everywhere, people die and we just move on. In Jos, Plateau State at certain moments of the year, the weather could be so cold as if it is winter, but the people never prepare. Nigerian newspapers used to report deaths in Plateau State during the rainy season, just because some of the people will refuse to wear warm clothing! The other year, when there was heavy rainfall in Lagos, people were swimming and hunting for fish on the streets of Victoria Island. Many were more excited about catching fish than the fact that the Atlantic had overflown its banks, and the whole of Lagos Island could be submerged. We treat everything as a joke around here including the lives of citizens. There are cities around the world that are below the sea level – Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Singapore, Santo Domingo… They are better managed. When floods occur here, what you are likely to hear is that it is time to propitiate the river goddess. Other countries are talking about artificial intelligence, efficient robots and cutting-edge technology, we are still at the level of spirits and goddesses. This primitivity and superstition is the biggest challenge we face. It is in fact worse than climate change.
The third point to be made is that our major problem in Nigeria is negligence. We don’t care enough about the environment. We believe the best way to live is to beat, game and cheat the system, and ignore all possible rules for harmonious living. We thrive in the midst of chaos. We revel in disaster. This is why regulations don’t work here. Part of our environmental problem is that we build on drainage channels. We dump refuse indiscriminately. We threaten nature with our actions and choices. Government officials collect bribe and look the other way. Basic rules that work elsewhere about building plans and management of the environment do not work here. When nature fights back, we blame everything on witchcraft. The floods before now and this time are a reflection of the way we are.
But should government continue this way or look the other way, and allow the people to suffer and die? No. It is particularly disturbing that official responses have been cavalier. In Anambra and Kogi states, we have seen the state Governors – Soludo and Bello identifying with the people. Most of the other state Governors can’t be bothered. In one state, a Governor and his Deputy who could not be found as floods ravaged communities in the state were booed this week when they tried to attend a festival, behaving as if nothing happened. I am referring to Mohammed Abubakar Badaru of Jigawa State and his Deputy, Umar Namadi. Other state Governors in affected states are too busy with pre-2023 political rallies to even talk about the floods. They obviously consider their political ambitions more important than the people’s agony. This is strange. Political leaders must learn to show empathy. They must demonstrate that the people matter.
The starting point is to provide support for all the farmers who have lost their farmlands and crops, and the families and communities that have also lost so much, as was done in 2012. Where it is possible to provide grants, this must be done. Counselling too. And why are the emergency management agencies at both the Federal and State levels so silent? To stave off the looming effect of food inflation, the Federal Government should release grains from the National Strategic Grains Reserves in the existing 33 silos, even if the entire reserve is at the depleted level of about 60,000 metric tonnes due to COVID-19 interventions and mismanagement. Above all, we have to engage the Cameroonians in terms of temporary measures that can be agreed upon on the Lagdo dam issue. At home, we need to revive the River Basin Authorities, and address whatever problems they now pose, contrary to their original design.