OTHERS' VIEWS

OTHERS' VIEWS

Nigeria’s three main political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party (LP) – are in turmoil. They have been infested by little foxes that threaten to damage and, potentially, destroy them.

I know that discipline is not a virtue of political parties in a presidential system. In Nigeria’s own version, however, indiscipline governs everything. 

Whether the political parties are winning or losing – of course, it is worse when they’re losing – politicians never forget that the party is simply a convenient tool, serviceable only when it can help them get to power, but certainly dispensable immediately afterwards.

See what is happening in the PDP, the party which lost its way after 16 years in power. The same forces led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that snatched defeat, not once, from the jaws of victory, are still determined to bury what is left of the sick party alive.

To be fair, Abubakar has paid his dues. He has done so with the generosity of a rolling stone, gathering moss from PDP to the Action Congress of Nigeria (AC), then to n-PDP, and from there to APC, and back again to PDP. At each point, never failing to leave a mark in pursuit of the prophecy of a marabout about 26 years ago that he would one day become Nigeria’s president.

Ambition, what price?

Ambition is not a crime. For a man of Abubakar’s political accomplishments, however, not knowing when to stop is a bad thing. He not only abandoned the PDP for years, he worked against it openly by running against the party as the AC presidential candidate in 2007. It was bad enough for him to abandon the PDP and return to it to fight for a presidential ticket at a most ill-advised and inauspicious time.

But what is worse was for him to take a front-row seat at the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Abuja last week, plotting if not to run again as president, then to decide who runs the party. While this was happening, one of the party’s altar boys, Emeka Ihedioha, was resigning with a heavy heart from the PDP, perhaps casting one eye at his grandfather, Abubakar, the remaining dinosaur among the founding fathers present at the Abuja NEC meeting.

It was one meeting Abubakar should not have attended – or if it was inevitable, he should have come at least shedding crocodile tears in remorse for his role in how the party snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2023 general elections. But he came, as we say, with his full chest.

Accuser and accused 

I looked at the press photos from the event twice to believe he was actually the one sitting there in the front row at the NEC meeting. As if that was not heartbreaking enough, some folks – governors/landlords of the party –lined up behind him, asking not for him to account, but that the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, who sustained the party while Abubakar was in exile, should be disciplined for “anti-party activities.”

Wike has his problems, but they do not include political prostitution. Or trashing the party’s constitution (as Abubakar did) which clearly provided that it was not the North’s turn to field a presidential candidate. When will the PDP learn?

Humpty Dumpty

I’m told that after separate meetings with Abubakar and Wike by the PDP governors (four of whom appear to be leaning towards Abubakar, seven for Wike and two undecided) the party is considering setting up a reconciliation committee headed by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, to mend Humpty Dumpty.

I wish Saraki luck in his task of doing what all the king’s horses and all the king’s men have failed to do. But as surely as six follows seven, the record of all known attempts to settle intra-party conflicts by indulging the hubris of the instigator have ended in futility. There’s not much time left before the party’s congresses in June and all the drama at the Abuja NEC was about control of the party ahead of that congress. 

With Umar Damagum still in the chair as acting Chairman – the last thing that Abubakar wanted before the NEC meeting – the former vice president’s grip is more tenuous than it ever was and his relevance in decline.

Proxy wars 

The PDP can, however, take comfort that it’s not alone in keeping the foxes out of its garden. Even the ruling APC and Labour are having torrid times of their own. APC Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, has been fending off petitions and attacks from his state, Kano, by persons who not only want him out, but also want him tried on charges ranging from bribery to diversion of funds, misappropriation and criminal breach of trust.

What is happening in Kano is a continuation by other means of the long-running war between NNPP leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and his former deputy-turned-adversary, Ganduje. Of course, APC members in Ganduje’s Kano ward are being used against him in this proxy war, but his real foe is Kwankwaso.

There has been talk of party members in the North Central eyeing Ganduje’s chair. But party insiders insist that the main issues remain the potential return of Kwankwaso to the APC and who between him and Ganduje has more strategic value for 2027. 

Musical chairs 

Party chairmanship is perhaps the ficklest of positions. Ganduje is the sixth APC chairman in 10 years and three national election cycles, while its older cousin, the PDP, has produced 18 in 25 years, with only two – Barnabas Gemade and Ahmadu Ali – completing their tenure. Even Labour, just one-year-old, cannot keep one chairman safe.

Ganduje knows he is on a hot seat, held only at the pleasure of the president, as we have seen from the days of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Changing Ganduje is hardly President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s problem. His headache is whether with the North’s growing unease about his administration, he can find someone else to replace Ganduje that he can trust. 

Tinubu can also hardly ignore the anti-Nasir El-Rufai stirrings in Kaduna, which not a few have suggested may have been instigated by Abuja. There’s a double imperative for Tinubu first to secure Kano, the North West’s vote bank; and also, to keep El-Rufai, an influential politician in the region, on a leash. The jury is out on who, between Kwankwaso and Ganduje, would be the better battering ram.

The leper and the milk 

The party chairman is like a leper. He may not be able to drink the milk that nourishes his appointor’s position, but he sure can spill it. And the perfect fit, often, is someone with something around their neck, which if they ever forget, can be used to constantly remind them of their vulnerability. Since Kwankwaso and Ganduje cannot possibly sit in a room without a referee in protective gear, a middle ground is out of the question. Tinubu will have to choose who to work with between the two. 

While he is at it, party administration will continue to drift and Ganduje’s authority will continue to ebb. 

Labour in vain 

But again, this is not significantly different from what is happening in Labour, where two factions of the party – one headed by Julius Abure and the other by Lamidi Apapa – have brought the party to its knees, raising speculations of the possible exit of the party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi.

With the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) taking a stand against Abure and splitting the party’s executive right down the middle, it won’t be long before Obi decides whether he can save this ship or risk drowning with it.

The moment of decision for the parties may seem far off, if you count three years until the next general elections. But in politics it is not the years before the next election that count; it is the events that shape those years. And those events are lining up at a speed that suggests that if the campaign for 2027 has not started already, it might be upon us sooner than later.

“What we mean by restructuring is going back to the Independence Constitution which our leaders negotiated with the British between 1957 and 1959. It was on that basis that the three regions agreed to go to Independence as one united country. When the military came in 1966 and threw away the constitution, they did not only throw away the constitution but a political consensus negotiated and agreed by our leaders of the three regions. The regions used to be federating units, but in today’s Nigeria, they would now be called federal regions because states have been created in the regions. So, we are saying let us go back to that arrangement which all of us agreed at independence and not what Abacha imposed on us, which is very partial, unfair and one-sided. That is the meaning of restructuring; it is to restructure unfairness and give semi-autonomy to the federating units.”

That was Chief Olu Falae, a former Secretary to Babangida’s military government, giving historical context to our current crisis of nation building during a last week Arise TV programme in order to educate our uninformed youths and elders described by Senator Adams Oshiomhole as “mischief makers who are trying to twist, manipulate and politicize a patriotic request borne out of altruistic motivation” by pretending not to know the meaning of restructuring.

But Chief Olu Falae is not alone. For his fellow crusading patriots, the answer to our unresolved national question is a return to our 1954 structure, negotiated by our founding fathers ‘to promote the unity of Nigeria and protect the interest of diverse elements that make up the country’. Some of these credible voices include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who has called for ‘less centralized, less suffocating and less dictatorial’ central government; the late Alhaji Balarabe Musa, former governor of Kaduna State who had called for ‘a return to regional arrangement, where each region can create states they can cater for, which would certainly reduce injustice and inequality among the people;’ and Emeka Anyaoku, the former Commonwealth Secretary-General who has also renewed his call for ‘a return to the regional structure practiced in the First Republic, with the country’s six regions forming the federating units.’ And for Gen. Alani Akinrinade, “anyone that wishes Nigeria well and wants our states to develop will join in the growing agitation to restructure the country;” while for Wole Soyinka, regarded by many as the conscience of the nation, “the basis of our association needed to be renegotiated if we are to prevent a disastrous disintegration.”

 
 

Our founding fathers, confronted with the challenges of a multinational Nigeria state, described by Obafemi Awolowo in 1947 as ‘a geographical expression’ and as ‘a British intension’ by Tafawa Balewa in 1948, resolved to make Nigeria home to every nationality within the greater Nigerian nation. Thus, when Action Group was formed in Owo April 25, 1951, the party’s motto was “United through federation, freedom for all, and life more abundant;” while the manifesto of NPC, inaugurated in Kaduna by Balewa, Ahmadu Bello and others in September 1951, focused on “regional autonomy within a united Nigeria ‘with “one north, one people, irrespective of region ethnic and religion”, as its slogan. Each dominant ethnic group managed its own affairs

They knew they didn’t have to invent the wheel since it had long been established that crisis of nation building in most multi-ethnic nations of the world is best addressed through a federal arrangement. Europe itself had after two devastating world wars resolved their crisis of nationhood by embracing federalism. And working in our founding fathers’ favour was the fact that despite the 1914 amalgamation designed for ease of administration, the long-term policy thrust of Britain was a Nigerian nation with a federal system where every group can develop at its own pace without interference from others.

The colonial powers challenged those who live in denial, claiming that “our cultural differences had been exaggerated by accident of colonial rule,” to look at themselves in the mirror to confirm if there were parallels “between the Hausa of Zaria and the Bantus people of the Benue Valley,’ the 200,000 Ogonis who escaped the tyranny of South African Chaka the Zulu, ‘the cannibals of the mama hill, the unsocial Mumuyes of Muri Province and of naked warriors of the inner eastern tropics,” all of who were at different levels of cultural development.

To underscore Britain’s commitment to her policy thrust, Hugh Clifford, the then Governor General of Nigeria in an address to the Nigerian Council on December 29 1920, asserted that the British policy was to support ‘the local tribal institutions and the indigenous forms of government based on the ‘social institutions which have been evolved for it by wisdom and by the accumulated experiences of generations of its forbearers,’ adding that “if suddenly the impossible were feasible’, that those separated by difference of history, traditions, social, political and religious barriers were indeed capable of being welded into a single homogenous nation’, it would be a disservice to the concept of national government which secures to each separate people the right to maintain its identity, its individuality and its nationality.”

 

But rather than prove Oliver Stanley  who  while speaking before foreign policy association in New York City on January 19, 1945 had said that “it is the British presence alone which prevents a disastrous disintegration and British withdrawal today would mean for millions a descent from nascent nationhood into the turmoil of warring sects” wrong,  the new inheritors of power confirmed his fears when they threw the West into a political turmoil with its attendant violence, deaths and loss of properties” following their imposition of  a leader on the west in breach of the constitution in 1962.  And ‘to cut Awolowo to size’, according to Trevor Richard, they created Mid-west out of West while suppressing the self-actualization quest of 11 national groups made up of 3.2 million Efik/Ibibio/Annang, 700,000 strong Ijaws, 220,000 Ogonis and 8.000 Ngenis and others totaling 5.3 million (1963 census) in the COR areas of the Eastern Region.

Ironically, Nigerians got better deal from the colonial masters than the successive military regimes who have since 1966 done everything including plunging the nation into an avoidable civil war except addressing the core issue of crisis of nationhood- which is about how our multiethnic, multi-cultural and multi religious society can live together in harmony. Their efforts like those of their ‘new breed’ politicians to resolve the national question through constitutional negotiations like statesmen turned out to have been driven by greed and intrigue.

General Ironsi’s 21st Feb 1966 Study Group on Constitutional Review was sabotaged by his own unitary Decree 34 of 24th May 1966, just as Gowon’s Ad-hoc Group to work on Constitutional Proposal was overtaken by outbreak of riot in the north. Murtala Muhammed’s Constitution Drafting Committee’s report (CDC) of 18th October, 1975 into which Obasanjo added 17 different items, was according to Rotimi Williams and Nwabueze, who regretted their role in building a federal “leviathan” inferred they merely did the bidding of the military.

The 1999 constitution known as Abdulsalami Abubakar’s ‘Decree 24’, never debated by anyone was the sum total of Babangida’s 1989 and the largely boycotted Abacha’s 1995 constitutional conference. While Obasanjo’s own National Political Reform Conference (NPRC) of February 2005 was marred ‘tenure-elongation’ concerns, Jonathan’s 2014 CONFAB was thought to be an after-thought to seek support of Southwest, the region that was in the forefront of the struggle for restructuring.

For Olu Falae and other concerned Nigerian stakeholders, our journey to nationhood must start with enthronement of justice, which is best assured with restructuring of the country in line with the dreams of our founding fathers and the 1920 British stated policy thrust.

 

Since the arrest of another Nigerian socialite, Pascal Okechukwu (aka Cubana Chef Priest), I have come across jejune assertions justifying the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s pursuit of those spraying naira at parties. While reading comments made by a random commenter on social media but unsupported with sensible evidence is one thing, it is another entirely when the illogic becomes the subject of a newspaper editorial. We must be careful not to contort logic because we want to justify the abuse of power by an organisation like the EFCC that hardly boasts a significant record of conviction against perpetrators of massive heists but wants to convince us that naira spraying is where the problem lies. If the EFCC’s move against those charged to court for abusing the naira is truly about the naira and not a mere pursuit of vendetta against select individuals, the CBN Act 2007 would have long netted traditional rulers, politicians, popular juju/fuji musicians, and even Afrobeat artistes. We all know the reason the EFCC will not dare.

The campaign against naira abuse has subsisted for decades but selecting individuals for prosecution based on what they do at parties/events is a new development. Maybe, the madcap is due to the EFCC’s new sheriff or a newfangled zeal to remain relevant since the prosecution of actual thieves is impossible for them. Naira spraying, a practice associated with faaji-loving Yorubas, has existed for decades and is now appropriated by other ethnic groups in the country.

Money spraying has given rise to a mini-industry of buying and selling crisp and clean notes at party sites, an enterprise that must irk a joyless organisation like the EFCC. It is interesting that party sites are about the only place you are guaranteed to ever see crisp notes in Nigeria. I have been to several countries but Nigeria is about the only place where the dirtiest and the most diseased currency notes circulate. Even banks unembarrassedly hand you piles of dirty and shrunk notes that should have been shredded five years ago! Unless you are connected to someone high up who can help you procure clean crisp notes, it is virtually impossible to get them in Nigeria. It is at those party sites that ordinary folks get to sight and buy them to spray; such is the nature of our cultural attitude to ostentatious displays of joy. Unfortunately, it is also that very joy that the EFCC has sneakily come to steal, to kill and to destroy with their sudden clampdown.

First, a major reason the naira notes get so easily mutilated is that our economy is heavily cash-dependent. The practices that Section 21 of the Central Bank of the Nigeria Act of 2007 identifies as naira abuse—and for which punishments are prescribed—only marginally contribute to the problem of the shortened life of the notes. The Act stipulates activities such as spraying at events and dancing or stumping on naira notes; writing, stapling, and tearing banknotes; defacing, selling, and mutilating, as examples of naira abuse but all of the above barely culminate in the diseased condition of the notes in circulations. Money is too scarce in Nigeria for anyone to mutilate it like that. What is far more responsible for the limited life of naira notes is their heavy usage. How?

Nigeria has a high percentage of what they call the “unbanked population.” That is, a section of people who do not have an account with a financial institution nor are connected to the grid of mobile monetary payment systems anywhere. Consequently, we transact in cash a lot, which puts a heavy strain on our naira notes. In 2022, a report put Nigeria as one of the seven countries that comprise half the world’s unbanked population. That is a lot of people who do not use the electronic systems of banking that have reduced the demand for physical notes in other countries. The factors that have helped advanced economies to achieve cashlessness—that is, ready availability and reliability of digital payment systems and infrastructure—are still largely missing in Nigeria. Without knowing Nigeria’s population, we can only guess that those who use cash in daily transactions run into millions.

Meanwhile, much of what also constitutes our economy is classified as “informal,” meaning a bulk of transactions we carry out daily pass beneath the radar of what is formally accounted for by institutions. Our daily habits do not help the condition of the naira either. How many Nigerians use wallets to store their cash? In marketplaces, people squeeze naira notes before tucking them in their waist bags and aprons. Those are the daily activities that strain the naira. Was the whole idea behind changing the material used to produce the smaller denominations of the naira to polymer to reduce the strain of the heavy usage of those notes?

While it is easy—and cheap, in fact—to blame naira spraying at parties for the poor condition of the physical notes, nobody has established a reasonable connection between the two. What does naira spraying have to do with the ultimate condition of diseased naira notes? Nobody can say for a fact that the dirty naira notes that circulate in the country came about because they were sprayed at parties. Yes, people spray money at parties, but most of those gatherings also mop up the money immediately! The naira notes that people take home after concluding their celebrations usually retain their newness and crispness, so what is anyone talking about?

Second, while there is no denying that there has been a significant decrease in our unbanked population due to the 2022/2023 naira redesign policy, overall, there is still too little physical cash in circulation. The naira redesign policy that the former administration introduced to reduce the overreliance of our economy on cash and encourage us to adopt digital alternatives sapped Nigerians of naira. For a country already heavily dependent on cash, withdrawing more than two trillion from circulation was an unmitigated disaster. Around this time last year, one of the major conspiracy allegations surrounding the general elections was how the country was being starved of naira notes to reduce the electoral chances of a political candidate whom everyone knew was going to hand out cash to bribe prospective voters. The election has long been over. The candidate they allegedly conspired against won, but the problem of the paucity of cash in circulation has hardly improved.

Our leaders must stop pursuing frivolities and focus on abstract solutions to our economic problems. Nigeria is not the only country where people spray money. In the United States, they throw cash at strip dancers who tuck the cash in their G-strings. The Federal Bureau of Investigation never pursues people like that because they know that that is not where the strength of the dollar lies. What makes the dollar the dollar is not the piece of paper they printed a few symbols on; the dollar is the dollar because the US is the US. When Nigerians throw a party in Europe, they procure $1 bills to spray at parties. You will never hear the US barking at anyone in the name of defending its currency.

Our currency is frequently defended with all kinds of tactics, yet its value hardly appreciates. When it does, the gains are not sustained. From arresting Bureau De Change operators to Binance officials, Nigeria uses too much physical force—rather than informed technical knowledge—to supposedly advocate its currency. Where does it ever get us? Our leaders do not seem to know how to make naira great, and that is why they resort to gimmicks such as arresting people for spraying naira at social events.

It doesn’t surprise me that the former Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, is now a fugitive from the law. Any discerning person would know that the man who bullied the people of his state for eight years is simply a coward. Four years ago, I wrote the following words after Bello was re-elected for his second and final term in office. “While the body bags are still being counted in Kogi State, with fresh killings even after the results have been declared, Yahaya Bello is back as I predicted,” I stated in the opening paragraph to my November 2019 column, following his re-election marred by several killings. “I watched him (Bello) on television yesterday and he couldn’t even spare a word to condole the families of those who died. So, to the people of Kogi who will have to endure another four years of purposeless government, please accept my commiserations.” 

An Association of National Accountants of Nigeria (ANAN)-certified accountant, Bello worked with the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) from 2001 (after his mandatory NYSC) until he retired into transport business and politics. He joined the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) of Muhammadu Buhari, who would later become president. Elected governor in November 2015 without even being on the ballot (he inherited the votes of Abubakar Audu who died before the results could be announced), one would expect Bello to be humble. But for eight years, he behaved as though he was above the law. In fact, he saw himself as the law. He repeatedly told appointees that in his own dictionary, ‘loyalty comes before efficiency’.

Under Bello’s stewardship, every election in Kogi State was like war. In a video that went viral before the 2019 gubernatorial election, Bello’s female supporters were threatening his opponents with gunshots. Ahead of the 2023 election, there was another trending video of Bello where he said: “I will personally light a fierce fire in my hand. Whoever want it, we shall use it to burn them, whoever survives it will thank God… Whoever is against us, we will make him or her (to) join my mother and lie with her (my mother) in the grave.” By that video, according to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) spokesman, Debo Ologunagba, Bello revealed himself. “From his outburst, Nigerians now know the individuals who engineered the gruesome killing of many of our citizens including the PDP Woman Leader in Kogi State, Mrs. Salome Abu, who was burnt alive in her house in 2019. Also, Nigerians now have more insight into the disappearance of Hon. Adelabu Musa, the PDP Chairman in Okene Local Government Area for over three years now,” Ologundana said in a statement released at the time.

Ordinarily, the impeachment process is guided by unambiguous laws as to how it could be prosecuted. But not in Kogi under the ‘White Lion’ who held the three arms of government in his firm grip. On 20 October 2019, Bello illegally terminated the tenure of his deputy, Simon Achuna, using his cronies in the State House of Assembly and a compromised judiciary. The then Chief Judge of Kogi State, late Justice Nasir Ajanah, empanelled an impeachment committee in line with section 108 of the 1999 constitution (as amended) to investigate allegations against Achuna by lawmakers. The committee reported back that there were no verifiable grounds for impeachment and consequently returned a verdict of not guilty. At Bello’s insistence, the same Justice Ajanah, whose panel acquitted Achuna of any misconduct, performed the swearing in of David Edward Onoja (to replace Achuna) as Deputy Governor!

For eight years, Bello projected the image of a tough guy, apparently because he misunderstood the real meaning of power. Acting under a purported resolution by the State House of Assembly in October 2022, the former governor deployed armed thugs to seal the Dangote Cement Plc in Obajana. He claimed that Kogi State owns the plant and resorted to self-help in what appeared a not-so-subtle attempt at a shakedown. After much damage had been done, the company was reopened following the intervention of the federal government.

The litany of misdeeds by Bello, who combined hubris with narcissism, is quite extensive. During the Covid-19 pandemic that led to a lockdown in most countries across the world, including Nigeria, the former governor insisted there was no such health challenge in Kogi State. When Justice Ajanah died at the Gwagwalada COVID-19 Isolation Centre in Abuja and had to be buried at Gudu cemetery in compliance with the COVID-19 burial protocol set by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Bello was livid. He said the Kogi Chief Judge died of natural causes, and not of anything else as is “being insinuated by certain persons for political and mischief purposes”, while describing Covid-19 as a ‘hoax’.

Meanwhile, Bello has a criminal case with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) regarding double registration in both the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Kogi State. “Following reports of the alleged double registration by the governor of Kogi State in the on-going Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise, the commission set up a panel of investigation into the involvement of staff in the matter. The initial report submitted by the panel was referred to the Appointment, Promotion and Disciplinary Committee, which made recommendations to the commission,” the INEC National Commissioner & Member, Information and Voter Education Committee, Mrs. May Agbamuche-Mbu, announced on 14 December 2017. “While the governor of Kogi State currently enjoys immunity from prosecution, the commission took the following decisions in respect of its own staff: Summary dismissal of two staff for acts of gross misconduct, immediate and compulsory retirement of an electoral officer for acts of gross misconduct.”

So serious was the matter that on 28 February 2018, the Senate mandated its Committee on INEC to investigate. “The governor of Kogi was involved in double voter registration and weeks after, INEC confirmed that by sacking three of its staff,” Senator Mohammed Hassan said in a motion that was unanimously adopted. “It was reported that he (Bello) was issued another Temporary Voter Card (TVC) at his Okene ward.” Then Senate President, Bukola Saraki, explained the gravity of the matter: “The issue you are talking about is one that is important because the stability of our democracy depends on the credibility of our electoral process. It is something the INEC committee should investigate and report back to the Senate.” Despite the indictment, Bello claimed that if anybody was engaged in double registration, it must have been his ghost. Now that he no longer enjoys immunity from prosecution, the law must find that ‘ghost’ and hold him to account. 

Readers may argue that the foregoing has nothing to do with Yahaya Bello’s case with the EFCC. That is true. I am just not interested in that drama of corruption. As I have always reiterated on this page, fighting corruption requires proper investigation that will lead to trials and convictions. It’s not about telling tales in the public. In the instant case of Bello, the only evidence of corruption that is credible is the one presented in a court of law. Not at press conferences. In November 2017, then Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Walter Onnoghen, established the Corruption and Financial Crimes Cases Monitoring Committee (COTRIMCO). In its report, the committee said of the EFCC: “Offenders are charged to court before proper investigations of the charges are done, and afterwards, expecting the court to detain such alleged offenders till conclusion of their investigations”.   

I am aware that the former governor and his nephew, Ali Bello (currently the Chief of Staff to the incumbent Governor Usman Ododo) and two other accomplishes are being accused of laundering a total sum of N80,246,470,088.88, belonging to Kogi State. The allegations may well be true. But he will not be the first governor to be so charged. A former governor of Zamfara State, Bello Matawalle (around whom EFCC staged a similar drama last year) is now a member of the federal executive council! So, this intervention is not about how Bello fiddled with the resources of Kogi State and his hide-and-seek game with the EFCC. It is about the perils of power for politicians who behave as though there is no tomorrow. The question that arises is, why do the Yahaya Bellos of this world thrive in our political system?

Since early last year, I have been working on a book regarding 25 years of unbroken democracy in Nigeria. Despite my best efforts, it is not likely to be out till the end of this year or early 2025. The reckless abuse of power is one of the issues I am interrogating since those who abuse power have no qualms about looting public funds. We must wonder why a constitutional republic continues breeding so many rudderless apprentice emperors who rule with impunity, fiddle with public funds, violate the rights of the very citizens they were elected to govern, and literally run amok with power. 

But it is not all negative. The strength of our system lies in the chilling lesson that after the wildness of uncontrolled power comes a return to sanity when the cloak of absolute immunity yields place to the cold reality of common ordinariness. By his action, Yahaya Bello has suddenly come to terms with the full implications of that reality. What he has failed to understand is that he cannot continue to deploy the services of his successor, Usman Ododo, to shield himself. I am sure there is an expiry date to that relationship between the godfather and his godson as we have seen in numerous states over the years. 

Overall, I fail to understand why Bello is on the run. If he is well advised, he could surrender himself to EFCC followed by drummers with his ‘Ta ta ta’ female supporters as cheerleaders. With enough resources to hire as many Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SANs) as he wants, I am sure Bello would spend not more than a few days in Kuje before he walks free. A ‘Lion’ (white or black) should not regress into the rascality of behaving like a weather-beaten chicken in a bid to frustrate the law and evade accountability.

 A Worthy Example for Yoruba Obas

The ten-minute BBC Yoruba interview with a former United States-based wrestling legend, who is now Oba James Oladipo Buremoh, Aroko Ola Ajagungbade 1, the king of Idera community in Kwara State, has continued to generate considerable interest. In the video clip, the man renowned in the past as ‘Ladi the African Tiger’, told the story of his emergence as king, and the initial pact with his people which included allowing him to spend six months annually working in the United States and returning home to spend six months. Working for a tour firm as a bus driver as revealed in his interview with the American National Broadcasting Company (NBC) displeased some Nigerians who felt that he was denigrating the traditional institution. “At this point, Safiu Olaniyan, the Nigerian Consul in the United States had to douse the tension by letting everyone to understand that there’s dignity in labour,” he recollected.

For someone who spent most of his early life in the United States, it is remarkable that Oba Buremoh (who in 1978 defeated American Mike Hayes for a World Wrestling title) speaks impeccable Yoruba. The traditional ruler said as of the time he ascended the throne in 2003, only one of his children had completed secondary school and he had to train them without depending on government or anybody. So, he opted to continue working in the United States while ploughing his savings back home. Let me take some of the story from the traditional ruler: “You can ask my children. They know I don’t buy clothes. I don’t buy anything for myself. I prefer to lack than to see people around me in dire need and suffering. Whatever money I made abroad, I was bringing home to spend on my family and Idera community. In the past, kings were seen as the lord and master. Nowadays, I think they should be seen as servants instead.”

The Oba, who returned home fully in 2019, continued: “That is the way I see myself. I am a servant and I say this all the time to my people in Idera community. Instead of directing or forcing people to take up a task during any community work, I always lead from the front. I remember the day we were building our primary school. It was a joint project with the government. I personally paid our own share of the counterpart funding while the government paid the rest. On the day of the foundation laying ceremony, I was the first to start work at the site. The chiefs tried to prevail on me not to join them in working but I declined. Like a labourer, I picked up a digger and I participated fully from the beginning to the end. Whenever I start any work in the community, nobody would sit down while I was working. This way, we have been moving together in the community over the years with a strong conviction that there’s a clear difference between a boss and a leader. A boss demands respect while a leader earns it.”

In the BBC clip, the royal father could indeed be seen in a t-shirt and denim shorts, working with other men within his community. For me, he is a worthy example of what any leader, especially any traditional ruler, should be. Unfortunately, in Yorubaland today, most of the people being elevated to the throne believe it is all about overdressing in some gaudy apparels and gallivanting all over the place rather than serving their people. Many also do not have other means of livelihood and do not present themselves publicly as worthy examples. That was not the way it was in the past when we had a Timi in Ede, Oba John Adetoyese Laoye, who was not only a drummer-king, dancer, and cultural icon but also globally renowned for his craft even as a traditional ruler. 

At age 78 in 2012, the Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona—who will be 90 next month and has been on the throne for the past 64 years—enrolled to study Law at the National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN). “Age cannot be a barrier to learning for me. It is what I desire and I assure all of you that I will study very well and come out of the university in record time without fail,” the Awujale said at the time while joining 200 other students at NOUN’s Awa Community Study Centre, in Ijebu North Local Government area of Ogun State. With that, the revered Ọgbagba Agbotewole II, an accountant, sent a strong message to his people on the importance of education.

Let me say here that there are many traditional rulers in Yorubaland today who are worthy of their thrones. Recently, there was a trending video of Oba Oyewole Oyediran playing the organ and conducting a choir of the Cathedral Church of St Paul, in his Sagamu town, Ogun State. That is a royal father indeed! And many Nigerians know that even as the Orangun of Oke-Ila, Oba Adedokun Abolarin still pursues his passion for education to the benefit of his people. Unfortunately, this class of traditional rulers is not in the majority, hence the need for soul-searching. Being a traditional ruler is a high calling. I am delighted that Oba James Oladipo Buremoh recognises that.

To the Aroko Ola Ajagungbade 1, ki ade pe l’ori, ki bata pe l’ese o!

 

While most Nigerians followed the OPL 245 trial at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja Division, via media reports, I was in court at every sitting — except if I was not in town. As a legal practitioner myself, I took keen interest in every detail of the proceedings. I took notes from when proceedings started in 2020 till when the ruling was delivered in 2024. I listened to the testimonies of the 10 witnesses presented by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). I listened to the submissions of the commission’s legal counsel.

That the case ended the way it did was inevitable. That Justice Abubakar Idris Kutigi upheld the no case submissions of the seven defendants, discharging and acquitting them, was just the fitting end to a show trial that was clearly lacking in substance and targeted at convicting one person: Mr Mohammed Bello Adoke SAN, the former Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice. No competent and conscientious judge would have ruled otherwise.

For all the drama, none of the prosecution witnesses mentioned the name of Adoke, the first defendant, regarding committing any infraction during the entire proceedings. Adoke was charged regarding the OPL 245 Settlement for “disobeying the direction of the law with intent to cause injury”, “disobeying the direction of the tax laws”, and “collecting gratification of N300m” from the second defendant, Aliyu Abubakar. Most of the witnesses only said they knew Adoke as former AGF and had no dealings with him.

The only witness who mentioned Adoke’s name was Mr Ibrahim Ahmed, the police investigation officer. He ended up contradicting himself on the source of the N300m which had been charged as gratification. Before Justice Kutigi, Ahmed said it was a bribe from the OPL 245 resolution. Before Justice Inyang Ekwo of the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja, he said it was a mortgage Adoke took from Unity Bank. That effectively killed the allegation. That the EFCC filed two different proceedings using the same particulars but making contradictory claims was fatal to their cases, as both courts ruled.

 

I need to make full disclosure at this point: I know Adoke very well. Having worked with him for over 10 years, I can testify at gunpoint that he did not break any law or dirty his hands in the OPL 245 Settlement of 2011. He did not need to tell me that he did not collect a bribe: I knew he didn’t; I knew he wouldn’t. That would go contrary to everything he stood, and still stands, for. I knew, and still know him, as a man of integrity. He always warned us, his proteges and subordinates, to avoid greed and corruption. He did everything possible within his financial means to make us comfortable so that we would be able to work honestly and think straight in all our dealings. I say this with every ounce of honesty in me.

When he was the AGF and Minister of Justice from 2010 to 2015, I saw him turn down gratifications running into billions of naira and millions of dollars. I saw him do favours for governors, ministers and business people without as much as collecting a cup of tea from them, much less material benefits. He always told them he was only doing his job. I saw him help people get paid judgment debts running into billions while turning down offers of “thank you”. These are the people that should have stood by him during his travails but they ran away for the fear of EFCC. For someone who turned down $20m from an oil magnate in 2011, there was no way in this world I would believe he collected the equivalent of $2m from the OPL 245 Settlement. It does not make any sense. In fact, Mr Vincenzo Armanna, a former manager of Eni/Agip, testified before the Court of Milan during the trial of Shell and Others that Adoke threatened to jail him and others for discussing kickbacks in the OPL 245 deal. That is the Adoke I know. That is the Adoke that became my role model early in life.

When the Federal Government, under former President Muhammadu Buhari, decided to impugn the sanctity of the OPL 245 Settlement, picking on Adoke as the scapegoat by accusing him of all sorts, it was not Adoke that was on trial. It was Nigeria that was on trial. It was the way Nigeria rewards its patriots that was on trial. As all the court documents show, it was former President Olusegun Obasanjo who revoked OPL 245 from Malabu Oil in 2001 that decided to restore the oil block to Malabu Oil in 2006 after a series of litigation leading to an out-of-court settlement. All Adoke did in 2010 was to advise former President Goodluck Jonathan to respect and implement the legally binding Consent Judgment. That was what led to the final resolution of the OPL 245 dispute that had lingered for a decade. Adoke was put on trial for stirring Nigeria in the direction of the rule of law.

 

In the Court of Milan, Italy, and the Commercial Court of England and Wales, it was Nigeria, not Adoke, that was on trial. Lawyers after lawyers and witnesses after witnesses spoke, most of them exonerating Adoke. But the EFCC collaborated with the Italian prosecutors to accuse Adoke of collecting a bribe of N300m, all in an attempt to stain the OPL 245 Settlement and get the oil companies convicted for international corruption and, in the imagination of some people, get them to pay for OPL 245 a second time. The Italian judges commended Adoke for the role he played in settling the OPL 245 dispute and said rather than being an accomplice with Chief Dan Etete, the beneficial owner of Malabu Oil, Adoke actually threatened him to either take the deal or the Federal Government would be forced to pull out of the resolution. That was the act of a patriot. In the UK, the judge dismissed all allegations against Adoke and said there was no evidence of fraud, or any proof that Nigeria was shortchanged.

Nigeria tried to throw Adoke, an innocent man, under the bus. Nigeria put Adoke on trial across the world hoping to disgrace and destroy him for the rest of his life in order to exact a price from the oil companies as well as compensate those who wanted a pound of flesh. Those behind the plot succeeded for over eight years, threatening him and chasing him out of his fatherland. But it was Nigeria that was on trial in the end, losing all the cases and wasting millions of dollars home and away. Those behind the wild goose chase should face the music for misleading the country and wasting precious time and resources. But I know I am asking for too much. Nevertheless, Adoke has been vindicated and he will be back on his feet again. As it is said, it is better for a man to fall and rise again than to stand hopelessly forever.

Audu, a legal practitioner, lives in Abuja.

Nigeria faces insecurity challenges across all six geopolitical zones. This insecurity takes various forms, including insurgency, terrorism, communal clashes, banditry, kidnapping, and piracy, and is fuelled by deep-rooted socio-economic, ethnic, and religious tensions. The Northeast has been particularly affected by the insurgency led by Boko Haram and its offshoot, ISWAP, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis that has seen millions displaced and widespread destruction. The Northwest faces challenges with banditry and kidnapping, where armed groups attack rural communities, causing significant loss of lives and displacement. Whilst the North-Central zone, or Nigeria’s Middle Belt, has experienced farmer-herder clashes driven by land disputes and environmental degradation, resulting in casualties and increased inter-communal tensions. What is clear is that Northern Nigeria is faced with a multifaceted tapestry of insecurity issues, each interwoven with the thread of history yet starkly impactful in today’s socio-political climate.

Banditry: A Persistent Historical Scourge

Banditry in northern Nigeria has a deep historical foundation that extends well beyond the current crisis. Historically, banditry was not just a matter of criminality but deeply woven into the socio-economic and political fabric of the region. The British conquest of the Northern Protectorate in 1903 and the subsequent amalgamation with the Southern Protectorate in 1914 were partly motivated by the desire to curb armed banditry and enhance regional security.  This era was characterised by widespread banditry, including armed robbery and community plundering, which influenced the decision to amalgamate. Although economic motives often dominate discussions about this amalgamation, the need to improve security, especially in the largely ungoverned Muslim North, was a significant factor. Lord Lugard, the first Colonial Officer of the Protectorate, experienced numerous confrontations with armed bandits who used ambush tactics with devastating efficiency, underscoring the security challenges of the time. Lugard’s encounters in areas like Nupeland, Kano, and Borguland, where he was wounded by bandits, highlighted the region’s precarious security situation.  In 1911, bandits in the Zamfara region ambushed Kano traders, killing about 210 people and stealing goods worth £165,000.  Additionally, persistent harassment, intimidation, and raids on herdsmen and traders around Kwatarkwashi in 1911 caused significant economic damage to the province. The collaboration between Zamfara communities and bandits from both Nigerian and present-day French territories facilitated these crimes, turning the region into a criminal haven.

The colonial administration’s response, which included stationing armed policemen along strategic routes in Sokoto Province to ensure security and collect caravan tolls, represented an early attempt to manage rural banditry.  However, cross-border crimes continued in the post-colonial period, worsened by civil wars and insecurity in the wider West Africa region. The smuggling of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs) across porous borders has further perpetuated violence and banditry in both rural and urban areas. The prevalence of these weapons continues to pose significant security challenges, impacting the stability and development of the region.

The shift from historical banditry to the current crisis is marked by this growing availability of modern weaponry, the erosion of traditional social structures, and worsening economic hardships. Unlike historical banditry, which may have had elements of honour or community defence, contemporary banditry is characterised by greater violence and less discrimination in targeting victims. Today’s bandits are less likely to strictly adhere to ethnic or familial lines, though some groups may still invoke these connections.

The phenomenon of banditry in the northwest predates the intercommunal conflict of the early 2000s and 2010s. Cattle rustling, a long-standing form of banditry in Northern Nigeria, involved nomadic and semi-nomadic groups engaging in livestock theft that was orchestrated by organised families or clans that passed down raiding techniques and routes through generations. Nonetheless, the ranks of bandits swelled significantly in the 2010s, partially as a result of increased ethnic tensions between Hausa and Fulani communities. Bandits exploited the grievances of herders, recruiting those who felt compelled to protect their lives, lands, and herds. Cattle rustlers like Buharin Daji and Kundu, for instance, conducted recruiting exercises in 2011 and 2012, and were successful in enticing young, predominantly Fulani men, with promises of cash, cows, and women. Alongside recruitment a number were simply coerced into joining their ranks.

Other Fulani individuals took up arms to defend themselves but came to view criminal activity as the best or only means of financing this self-defence. A group of four closely aligned bandit commanders in Zamfara claimed they resorted to cattle rustling in 2011 to acquire weapons for self-defense following attacks on their communities by local vigilantes’ group, known as Yan Sa-kai.  They justified their actions as a necessity, though others pursued banditry purely for profit. Some repentant bandits have admitted to joining bandit groups to reclaim rustled cattle, while others have expressed dismay over unnecessary killings of both Fulani and their cattle. These concerns are exacerbated by the worsening impact of ethnic profiling and vigilante justice. The distinction between economic necessity—”I must rustle some cattle to buy guns to defend my people from Yan Sa-kai”—and economic opportunism—”The more cattle I rustle, the more guns I can buy, becoming more powerful and wealthy”—is subtle. Many herders who initially took up arms for self-defence have since become hardened criminals.

The conflict in the north remains dynamic and mobile. The base of operations for bandits in the northwest can shift rapidly. Additionally, gangs often collaborate with other bandit groups to conduct attacks far from their camps, driven by both opportunity and necessity. For instance, bandit Dogo Gide, usually based in the Birnin Gwari forest straddling Kaduna and Niger states, targeted distant Birnin Yauri in Kebbi state for a mass kidnapping in July 2021, as many schools closer to his camps had closed due to banditry. Bandits typically move on motorcycles but also utilize waterways, especially during the rainy season, to transport themselves and their weapons via canoe.

Zamfara stands as the epicentre of banditry, albeit local government areas (LGAs) within Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger, and Kaduna that border Zamfara are also severely affected. For example, Sabon Birni, Isa, and Rabah, Goronyo in eastern Sokoto, bordering Zamfara’s Shinkafi LGA, have been among the hardest hit. In the Birnin Gwari region in western Kaduna high levels of violence are linked to its forest networks extending into Zamfara.

Banditry is also evolving, with groups have expanded their operations to include kidnapping for ransom, a highly profitable tactic that fuels their activities. In a significant strategic shift, the abduction of school children has become a favoured method for bandits, notably highlighted by the audacious kidnapping of the Kankara schoolboys by Auwalu Daudawa in Katsina state in December 2020. Since these incidents, the kidnapping of school children has become a potent weapon, with the most recent being the kidnapping in Kuriga, Kaduna state in March 2024.

Estimates suggest there are over 300 bandit warlords, each commanding at least 50 fighters operational across different regions of Northern Nigeria. Like in the pre-colonial era, kinship and community ties continue to play significant roles in banditry, with bandit groups often operating within defined ethnic or kinship lines, forming bandit families or clans. These groups rely on extensive networks of informants, safe houses, and community support to evade authorities or rival factions. The loyalty within these families and the code of silence among community members have made it challenging for authorities to effectively combat banditry.

The importance of a bandit leader extends beyond mere strength and the size of their forces or weaponry; it also hinges on the prowess of their affiliated musicians and the popularity of their songs.  Most bandit kingpins, locally known as “Kachalla,” boasts special songs attributed to them, contributing to their myth and aura. Hausa speaking Nigerians in their 40s and above will undoubtedly be familiar with the songs of Kassu Zurmi, Gambu and other musicians who served as praise singers to bandit families and noted kingpins in  the past. Today, this trend has continued with the emergence of a new breed of bandit-musicians, including figures like the late Surajo, Adamu Ayuba, Hammadu, Makaho, Mal. Jika, and Maigari -the latter three all hail from Dunburum in the Zurmi LGA of Zamfara state. These bandit-musicians play a pivotal role in the banditry ecosystem, with their songs serving as a measure of a bandit kingpin’s power and influence

The menace of banditry, while historically entrenched in the socio-economic fabric of Northern Nigeria, has undergone a significant transformation. Previously confined to local skirmishes and cattle rustling, modern-day banditry in the region has escalated into a lucrative and deadly operation. This involves kidnapping for ransom and large-scale violence that destabilises entire communities. This evolution reflects broader socio-economic despair and a governance vacuum, realities that have allowed bandits to grow their tactics and access the sophisticated weaponry. To this end addressing banditry today requires not only a security response but also an understanding and addressing of its deep-rooted causes.

Islamist Insurgency: A Transformative Force

The Islamist insurgency in Northern Nigeria, spearheaded by groups like Boko Haram and its offshoots including ISWAP has dramatically reshaped the region.  Founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf, Boko Haram initially targeted Western education and aimed to implement Sharia law, seeking to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria. But following Yusuf’s death in 2009, under Abubakar Shekau’s leadership, Boko Haram escalated its campaign, launching widespread attacks against the government, security forces, and civilians.

Ansaru, which emerged from Boko Haram in 2012, and ISWAP, which formed in 2016 and pledged allegiance to ISIS, represent significant fractures of the original movement. These groups have not only perpetuated the conflict but also broadened its scope from the Northeast across to the Northwest and North-Central zones of Nigeria, intertwining with local banditry and exploiting community grievances. This complex web of insurgent activity, coupled with efforts to embed within local populations and even collaborate with bandits, has fuelled a devastating humanitarian crisis marked by mass displacement and severe socio-economic disruption. The Boko Haram insurgency has directly and indirectly caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Nigerians and the displacement of millions, significantly hindering socio-economic development and altering the security, socio-economic, and geopolitical fabric of the region.

The growth of interactions with the other insecurity challenges across Northern Nigeria is a concerning trend. In the northwest, a region already troubled by bandit groups, there is an emerging cooperation between these bandits and terrorist groups, often involving financial exchanges, in states such as Zamfara, Niger and Katsina. This collaboration, particularly around the sharing of resources but also around local terrain knowledge, poses a risk of escalating the current insecurity. For instance, the train attack in Kaduna in March 2022 was a joint operation between a Boko Haram faction and the late Ali Kawaje, a prominent bandit warlord. But Boko Haram factions are not alone in this approach. Ansaru and ISWAP’s strategies have also included providing support against bandits in exchange for community allegiance and operating in strategic locations like Dandume, Birni Gwari and the Shiroro axis. This multifaceted insurgency landscape, marked by potential for both cooperation and infighting among groups, not only has immediate impacts for residents, but significantly complicates efforts to address insecurity in Northern Nigeria.

Herder-Farmer Conflicts: Deepening Divides

The age-old conflict over scarce resources between nomadic herders and settled farmers has intensified in North-Central states such as Kaduna, Benue, and Nasarawa, exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and land degradation. These clashes are no longer mere resource disputes but are increasingly interpreted through lenses of ethnicity and religion, adding layers of complexity to an already volatile situation. In this way the conflicts in the North-Central states of Nigeria are emblematic of a broader crisis facing the country, where environmental, economic, and societal pressures converge to fuel violence.

Historically, the relationship between nomadic herders and settled farmers was symbiotic. Herders’ cattle would graze on leftover crops from farmers’ fields, providing manure for the next planting season. But the historical migration patterns and pastoral livelihoods are now in direct conflict with modern agricultural practices and land use policies, leading to recurrent violence and community ruptures. Furthermore, this relationship has been strained by climate change, population growth, and land degradation, which have led to a reduction in available grazing land and water resources. These environmental stressors have pushed herders to migrate further south into more fertile farming lands, leading to conflicts with local farmers.

Often referred to as Nigeria’s “food basket,” Benue has been at the epicentre of herder-farmer clashes. The state government’s attempt to mitigate these clashes through legislation – the anti-open grazing law – has led to further polarisation with herders viewing such policies as existential threats to their way of life. In Kaduna state, the conflict has seen an alarming rise in violence, with numerous attacks attributed to armed herdsmen against farming communities. The situation is further complicated by the state’s diverse ethnic and religious makeup, turning disputes over land into sectarian violence, with devastating effects on community cohesion and security.

Herder-farmer conflicts are increasingly framed in ethnic and religious terms, with herders mostly being Fulani Muslims and farmers belonging to various ethnic groups and predominantly Christian. This framing has escalated the conflicts, making them harder to resolve as they now encompass identity and existential concerns. Northern Nigeria’s rich tapestry of religious and ethnic diversity has long been both a source of cultural wealth and a catalyst for tension. But in recent years, religious divides have intensified, frequently exacerbated by political actors, leading to violent outbreaks. The indigene-settler divide, a contest over rights and privileges anchored in historical land and identity claims, has the potential to stir social and political unrest.

Rooted in colonial legacy, the distinction between “indigenes” – those considered native to a particular locality – and “settlers” – people who, despite having lived in the area for generations, are regarded as outsiders – fuels disputes over access to land, resources, and political representation. This dynamic has led to repeated and deadly clashes, in places like Plateau state, between indigene farmers and settler herders over land.

Although the high-profile religious riots that characterised the last three decades in Northern Nigeria have decreased, emerging patterns of violence represent a new frontier of religious tension. These incidents underscore the volatile nature of religious sentiments and the potential for conflict. Linked to this, the proliferation of media platforms allows individuals to broadcast messages without oversight, contributing to a climate of intolerance and misunderstanding. This issue highlights a broader challenge within the Nigerian religious landscape, where inflammatory rhetoric can circulate freely, heightening tensions and sometimes leading to violence.

Understanding the Drivers: A Multifaceted Analysis

Factors driving insecurity include:

•             Land Use Disputes: The escalation of farmer-herder conflicts to unprecedented levels in recent years is partly due to conflicting land tenure systems. Traditional land distribution methods clash with formal government-granted rights, leading to widespread disputes.

•Changing Livelihoods and Climate Change: Diminishing arable land and water resources, exacerbated by inefficient farming practices, desertification, and erratic rainfall, force herders’ southwards, sparking conflicts with farmers over dwindling resources.

•Reciprocal Radicalisation: The stigmatisation of Fulani herders contributes to a cycle of violence, where negative perceptions between farmers and herders in different regions reinforce a spiral of escalating conflict.

•Security Sector Challenges: Inadequate security force capacity and professionalism, marked by under-resourcing and excessive force, undermine efforts to combat insecurity. The military and police, stretched thin and sometimes outgunned, often resort to heavy-handed tactics, exacerbating tensions.

•Access to Arms: Despite laws against unauthorized arms possession, the circulation of SALWs is rampant, with Nigeria accounting for a significant proportion of all SALWs in West Africa.

•Corruption and Injustice: Perceived injustices and corruption, filtered through ethnic, religious, or regional biases, fuel inter-communal conflict and insurgency, pushing communities toward extra-legal measures for self-protection.

•Regional overspill: Nigeria’s proximity to fragile states and the existence of numerous unofficial border crossings facilitates the movement of insurgent groups and bandits, compounding security challenges.

These multifaceted insecurity issues confronting Northern Nigeria are intricately linked to the region’s low Human Development Index (HDI) scores, which encapsulate vital dimensions like education, health, and economic opportunities. This connection underscores a cyclic relationship where underdevelopment fuels violence, and vice versa, emphasising the intricate nature of the challenges faced.

The educational disparities between Northern and Southern Nigeria play a significant role in the dynamics of radicalisation in the region. Lower literacy rates and school enrolment figures in the North, as reported by UNICEF and the World Bank, highlight a crucial challenge in access to and the quality of education. For instance, adult literacy rates as low as 40% in certain Northern states starkly contrast with rates above 80% in many Southern states.  Similarly, net primary school enrolment rates in the South approach 80-90%, while in the North, they can dip as low as 50-60%.  The Northwest region has three of the four states with the lowest literacy rates in the country.  Conflict is reinforcing these educational divides as one million Nigerian children are estimated to be out of school due to insecurity in the northwest alone.  Such disparities are further exacerbated by gender, with many girls in the North not attending school due to various socio-economic and cultural barriers.

This educational gap not only restricts economic opportunities but also heightens susceptibility to extremist ideologies. Groups like Boko Haram, have effectively exploited these vulnerabilities by offering alternative narratives that promise belonging, purpose, and sometimes financial benefits. Their ideology fundamentally opposes Western-style education, drawing on the educational inequities to fuel their narrative and recruit followers. Addressing these educational disparities is critical in countering radicalisation and fostering a more stable and prosperous environment in Northern Nigeria.

Limited access to healthcare and the resultant population discontent in Northern Nigeria are closely linked to the region’s overarching instability. Similar disparities are observed in health outcomes as highlighted by UN data and reports from the World Health Organization and UNICEF. Life expectancy in the North lags significantly behind the South, with figures as low as 50 years compared to the South’s average of around 60 years.  This divide is further deepened by child and maternal mortality rates in the North, which are nearly double those observed in the South. The scarcity of medical professionals exacerbates these health challenges. According to a report by The ICIR, Nigeria has an average of about four doctors per 10,000 people, a figure that, despite being the highest in two decades, falls short of the WHO’s recommended ratio of one physician for every 600 persons. 

Finally, stark economic disparities between Northern and Southern Nigeria manifest in various forms, including GDP per capita, income levels, and employment opportunities, creating a fertile ground for the recruitment into violence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Northwest Nigeria contains some of the poorest states in the country. As of 2019, each northwestern state has a higher poverty rate than the national average of 40.1%, with Sokoto having the highest rate in the country: 87.73% of the state’s population live in poverty.  Its reports also illustrate that unemployment rates in the Northern regions can exceed 20%, a stark contrast to the more industrially diverse and economically vibrant Southern regions, where unemployment rates hover around 10-15%.

The scarcity of livelihood opportunities becomes a pivotal factor driving individuals, especially the youth, towards armed groups and criminal networks. These groups exploit the economic vulnerabilities by offering financial incentives, making economic desperation a potent catalyst for individuals to join their ranks. A possibility that is aided by the availability of arms in the region, with gunrunning having evolved into a significant business operation.

The illegal arms market in Northern Nigeria has seen a marked increase in demand and supply. The economic incentives are significant, with prices for firearms and ammunition varying widely based on type according to sources. For instance, the cost of a single bullet can range from N2,000 to N5,000, while high-calibre weapons such as AK47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenades are traded for anywhere from N1.5 million to N5 million. This price variability has catalysed a geometric rise in individuals participating in the arms trade, particularly in the Northwest, which is home to rampant criminality.

Traffickers have developed sophisticated networks to transport illegal arms into and across Nigeria, deploying innovative methods to circumvent security checks. Concealment tactics range from hiding weapons within vehicles’ compartments, to using animals or canoes for border crossings, to disguising arms amidst legitimate cargo, such as agricultural products, to avoid detection.

The proliferation of illegal firearms not only fuels the ongoing insecurity but also complicates efforts to restore peace and order. This issue is further complicated by corrupt elements within society and the international scope of these trafficking networks. As Northern Nigeria grapples with this escalating crisis, a multifaceted approach that includes tighter security measures, regional cooperation, and addressing the root causes of demand for illegal arms is imperative.

Confronting the Challenges

The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in its Renewed Hope Agenda, provided a holistic framework that seeks to comprehensively address various aspects of insecurity. This agenda includes provisions for bolstering security forces, implementing community-based security initiatives, promoting socio-economic development, and fostering inter-communal dialogue to address grievances and foster reconciliation. Through the Renewed Hope Agenda, the government aims to tackle the underlying causes of insecurity by addressing issues such as poverty, unemployment, social marginalisation, and ethnic tensions. By implementing targeted interventions and reforms, the government seeks to create an environment conducive to peace and stability in Northern Nigeria.

President Tinubu was also deliberate in appointing northerners to top security positions, aiming to involve those with proximity to the issues in the crafting of solutions. The role I hold, of National Security Adviser, is a demanding job that requires dexterity, hard work, and consensus building across security and political structures. The figures we met in terms of both attacks and casualties when assuming office in May 2023 were deeply concerning. In 2022 alone Nigeria witnessed four major terrorism attacks: the attack on the Abuja-Kaduna train, an attack on the Guards Battalion in Abuja, the Kuje Prison attack, and another at a church in Owo, Ondo state. Meanwhile, many roads across the country, such as the Abuja-Kaduna, Zaria-Kano, and Lagos-Ibadan roads, were unsafe due to daylight operations by criminal elements.

Since the coming of this administration, we have not seen any organised terrorist attack. Roads hitherto unsafe for commuters, for instance the Abuja- Kaduna , Zaria-Kano are today secure for travellers at any time of the day. We are not out of the woods yet, but we have made serious progress in pushing down casualty figures and depriving miscreants access to weapons and free movement. Since assuming office, we have also successfully freed over a thousand individuals, many of whom were villagers held captive for as long as two to three years. We successfully secured the release of abducted students from the Federal University of Gusau and school children from Kuriga without paying ransom.

Our non-kinetic strategies and approach are driven by evidence. We have strengthened the administration of criminal justice by reopening trials of Boko Haram terrorism suspects detained in Kanji and other locations across the country and prosecutions are now underway in eight different courts. Concurrently, we have significantly reduced the proliferation of arms nationwide by blocking the flows and arresting gunrunners. With new appointments at the National Centre on Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCSALW), we are poised to launch even more robust initiatives.

On the kinetic front, the Nigerian military is conducting numerous operations targeting insurgent groups like Boko Haram and bandits operating in Northern Nigeria. Operations such as Operation Hadin Kai, Operation Safe Haven, Operation Whirl Stroke, Operation Hadarin Daji, and Operation Sahel Sanity have been launched to root out insurgents and criminals from their strongholds, dismantle their networks, and restore law and order in affected areas. The federal government has also established joint task forces comprising military, police, and other security agencies to coordinate efforts and enhance operational effectiveness in tackling insecurity. These task forces collaborate to conduct raids, patrols, and targeted operations aimed at disrupting the activities of insurgents and criminal elements. Nigeria has also bolstered border security measures, particularly along its porous borders with neighbouring countries, to prevent the infiltration of insurgents, weapons, and illicit goods. It has also prioritised intelligence gathering and sharing as a crucial component of its kinetic efforts to address insecurity in the region. Enhanced intelligence capabilities, include surveillance, reconnaissance, and information gathering, enable security forces to identify and neutralise threats more effectively. These efforts have been notably successful, with military personnel delivering the elimination of high-profile bandit leaders such as Ali Kawaje and Boderis,. They have also successfully disrupted existing cells of criminal terrorists, further securing the region and diminishing threats to public safety.

The Nigerian government is also focusing more on counterinsurgency strategies aimed at winning the hearts and minds of local populations. In doing so we can isolate insurgents from their support base and prevent the recruitment of new members. These strategies involve engaging with communities, providing humanitarian assistance, and promoting reconciliation and deradicalisation programmes. Infrastructure development, job creation programmes, improved education and healthcare services, and efforts to tackle poverty and inequality are also critical parts of this approach.

The emphasis on non-kinetic efforts alongside kinetic strategies marks a significant recognition that achieving peace in conflict zones extends beyond military might to include sustained and cooperative engagement across various sectors.  In line with this understanding, a pivotal meeting convened in March 2024 at the Office of the National Security Adviser in Abuja, saw the participation of 15 Northern Governors as well as service and intelligence chiefs. The agenda of this meeting was dedicated to formulating strategies to tackle the pressing security challenges in Northern Nigeria. A significant outcome of the discussions was the consensus on the necessity of transcending mere territorial dominance to also focus on winning the hearts and minds of the populace, thereby fostering a holistic approach to reinstating peace and stability in the region.

Central to these discussions was the acknowledgment of the critical role that grassroots and regional initiatives play in complementing government efforts. Among strategies highlighted were the reform of the Nigerian Police Force, enhancement of local policing capabilities, implementation of peacebuilding programmes, and promotion of dialogue and reconciliation fora. Additionally, educational campaigns designed to counter violent extremism are increasingly being recognised as pivotal components of the broader strategy to restore peace. These initiatives collectively represent a multidimensional approach aimed at addressing the underlying causes of conflict and building a foundation for long-term stability in Northern Nigeria.

Building on the analysis of current efforts and challenges, a roadmap for the future to ensure sustained progress in tackling insecurity in Northern Nigeria would include the following:

• A more integrated approach that combines military, political, and socio-economic strategies. This entails aligning security operations with efforts to address underlying grievances, such as poverty, unemployment, and marginalization.

• Enhancing cross-border cooperation to address transnational threats effectively and disrupt the flow of illicit arms and goods across borders.

• Investing in youth empowerment and education is essential to prevent radicalisation and mitigate the appeal of extremist ideologies. This includes providing access to quality education, vocational training, and economic opportunities for young people in Northern Nigeria.

• Strengthening the capacity of local institutions to govern effectively and address community grievances. This involves empowering traditional and religious leaders, local governments, and civil society organisations to play a more active role in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts.

• Promoting inclusive dialogue that involves all stakeholders, including marginalised communities, to foster a holistic and durable peace. This entails creating spaces for meaningful participation and representation of diverse voices in decision-making processes.

• Prioritising prevention and resilience-building measures can help mitigate the risk of future insecurity. This includes early warning systems, community policing initiatives, and programs to address the root causes of conflict and violence.

•Engaging regional neighbours to support efforts to secure and stabilise the region.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is crucial to emphasise that the complex web of insecurity engulfing Northern Nigeria is influenced by a blend of socio-economic, ethnic, and religious factors. Insights from historical examinations of banditry, the rise and growing impact of Islamist insurgencies, and the deep-seated conflicts between herders and farmers illustrate how insecurity has been exacerbated by a troubling increase in arms trafficking. To effectively address these issues, a comprehensive and cohesive response is required. The ultimate solution to the problem, however, has to be multifaceted, one that marries military, political, and socio-economic strategies with robust cross-border cooperation and deep community engagement.

By championing an integrated strategy that equally prioritises prevention and the building of resilience, we hope to attain a pragmatic roadmap towards achieving stability and prosperity in Northern Nigeria. This comprehensive approach, aimed at mending the socio-political fabric of the region, sets a new precedent for addressing deep-seated security issues through collective determination, strategic action, and a commitment to inclusive governance.

•Above are excerpts from a Convocation Lecture delivered last Thursday   by the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, at the Usmanu Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto 

The Governor of Abia State, Alex Otti, signed off tens of millions of Abia State funds to travel to Washington DC, USA, ostensibly to malign his predecessor, HE Dr Okezie Ikpeazu, who was not present at that forum to defend himself and indeed has not seen the so called “forensic audit” referenced by Otti. During his address, Otti falsely claimed, among others, that Dr Ikpeazu’s administration paid N10bn to contractors for the Abia Airport Project. Note that Otti failed to mention the concerned contractors.

I was a member of the state executive council when approval was given to spend N10bn to start the Abia airport project and in my capacity as then Commissioner for Information, I announced it to the public.

However thereafter, members of Abia State Traditional Rulers Council led by HRM Eze Joseph Nwabekee (Eze Amara), visited Governor Ikpeazu in his Government House Umuahia residence and advised that since the state was surrounded by at least four airports, the project should be suspended and the resources deployed to fix more roads.

Governor Ikpeazu accepted their recommendation and I also announced same to the public.

It is important to note that in the 8 years he was in office, Dr Ikpeazu fixed more than 200 roads including many urban roads that were bad for more than 30 years prior, and rural access roads across the state.

I will make public the list of road projects executed by Governor Okezie Ikpeazu while in office in another publication for verification by all and sundry.

Governor Alex Otti who supposedly worked at management level in a bank claimed that he hired an unnamed forensic auditor that made the false findings he had to take all the way to United States of America to make public. Unfortunately, he forgot a key element of auditing which is the response of the Auditee. To date, neither former Governor Ikpeazu nor anyone in his team has seen the report and he was never allowed to review it or state his own side. Yet, a supposedly responsible man chose to malign him in USA on the basis of same flawed, and possibly non-existent report.

Permit me to ask those expecting detailed response from Dr Ikpeazu what exactly he is supposed to respond to? Is he expected to say what we already know that Governor Otti is a liar in government house, or tackle the issues raised in an audit document he is yet to see and was not part of its making?

Are we not talking about same Governor Otti that lied publicly that he was not aware of any investment in the Aba IPP project by the Ikpeazu administration whereas Prof Barth Nnaji already advised him in writing that Abia under Ikpeazu invested the sum of $3.56m representing 3.5% shares in the project? Where is the fake 24/7 power supply in Aba that Otti gleefully claimed and for which Ikpeazu was unjustly vilified?

Is Governor Alex Otti not the same man that claimed that he has “cleared pension arrears of 9 years” whereas he only paid pensioners what his administration was owing them in 9 months and declared the rest forfeited? The same Governor Otti that told the world that he awarded Port Harcourt road Aba to Julius Berger at N32bn and the company gave him N2bn discount possibly as a groundnut seller that does not understand the public sector procurement process.

Anybody who believes whatever comes from Governor Otti is doing so at his own peril because time has proved that he is incapable of telling the truth at any point in time. He is a man consumed by hate and bitterness against his predecessor and will do anything to malign him even if it means demarketing Abia State in faraway USA.

As a citizen of Abia State and someone who served in Ikpeazu’s administration, I wish to recommend the following to enable the public get to the truth in this matter:

1. Governor Alex Otti should hand over a copy of the the so-called forensic audit report to Dr Okezie Ikpeazu for his factual response or alternatively publish it verbatim for the former Governor to read and respond to the issues with facts.

2. Publish the list of all contractors that allegedly received money from the Ikpeazu administration, with the amount involved, and did nothing. Such contractors and their accomplices deserve to go to jail if proven to be true. Yet, I know for a fact that many contractors that worked with Ikpeazu administration are still working with Otti or are his personal buddies. Unless Governor Otti is now stealing with them he should have no problem publishing their names and relevant contract details.

3. Governor Alex Otti should accept the setting up of a joint audit team with reputable audit firms nominated by Otti and Ikpeazu to review Abia finances from May 2015 to date. What that means is that the team will look into the finances of the Otti era in addition to that of Ikpeazu and publish the report for the world to see.

Let Otti bring his Ernst & Young or whoever that concludes and publish forensic audit report without response or input from the auditee while Ikpeazu brings a reputable local audit firm for the proposed exercise.

In his short story titled “The Small Man”, Michael Mayr noted as follows: “the small man was…small. Not a midget nor a dwarf…just small.”

Continuing, Mayr wrote: “Only once did I hear the Small Man speak, and I thank God it wasn’t to me. I cannot remember what he said and that is good, because all I know is that I will do anything not to hear that voice again. A voice that sounded like an avalanche of maggots eating their way through still living flesh…”

Obviously, Governor Alex Otti wishes to be the small man of Abia State hounding and harassing his predecessor out of personal bitterness arising from losing twice to him in previous elections. But he must know that he has only one term of 4 years with a maximum of possible extension to 8 years. After that, he will become like every other citizen and if his successor has the small man mentality like him, he will also proceed to do forensic audit on how Signature Bank suddenly bounced back to life, opened new branches across the country and with healthy balance sheet ten months after its owner became Governor of Abia State. He might also choose to track up certain investment in crypto currencies made from June 2023 to date and publish the report at Chatham House London without allowing Otti to see and defend himself.

May be Governor Otti needs to read Abiodun Fajabi who wrote “Don’t look down on others, lest you take your eyes off the ball and lose your bearing. For every ‘little man’ is put on your path for you to lift up, not to pull down; for you to include, not to exclude. He deserves not pity but love. And, don’t look up gratuitously to others, lest you sprain your neck and lose your sense of gratitude. Every ‘big man’ is put on your path for you to respect, not idolize; for you to honour, not resent. He deserves not envy but love. Love: that’s one debt you owe all men – the small and the big.”

As per former Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, my advice to you, Sir, is to remove your gloves and fight back like a man. Do not allow the small man continue to hound and harass you at every platform available to him. You have enough facts to take the battle to him and nobody will blame you if you do so because he obviously does not understand the true value of golden silence. Give him ten times whatever negative energy he gives you because time will prove that he was never prepared for governance, had no agenda and is only using your name to divert attention from his own many failings and weaknesses.

His administration has only one narrative “what Ikpeazu did and not do!” This narrative is a deliberate ploy adopted by Otti to dorminate his tenure, inundate and keep the public busy with so that at the end questions will not be asked of his administration’s near zero-achievement as the public is preoccupied listening to his manufactured horror fables to the extent that they will forget to ask for his own achievements.

Ler me end this piece with the words of a psychologist, Darius Cikanavicius, “People with strong narcissistic tendencies and other dark personality traits tend to blame others for their own bad behavior. If they are lying, then they will accuse others of lying. If they are cruel, they will say that others are cruel. If they are stealing and scamming, then they will accuse others of stealing and scamming. They never take responsibility, and it’s always someone else’s fault.”

Need I say more about Governor Otti?

Chief John Okiyi Kalu
(Nwandugbom JOK)
Former Commissioner for Information, Trade & Investment, Abia State

“If we are going to get equality, if we are going to get adequate wages, we are going to have to struggle for them.” - Martin Luther King, Jr.

One of the great tragedies of Nigeria’s political history is that, when they become the nation’s President, former military dictators pretend to be born again democrats while former democrats pretend to be courageous military dictators. PBAT threw an unprovoked vicious jab at the labour unions. He said,  “ You are not the only voice of Nigerians.” This is like poking lions in the chests and declaring that their roars are not the only voice in the jungle. It is politically unwise to throw jabs at labour unions in an inflationary economy. The last time a Nigerian government threw such an unprovoked jab at labour was in 1945 when the colonial government insisted that Nigerian labour was not  the only voice in Nigeria in the midst of a raging WWII inflationary economy. Labour responded with a national general strike of 1945. We will examine the 1945 national general strike in order to learn what labour must do now.

On May 19, 1945, Nigerian waged workers held a mass meeting at the Glover Memorial Hall in Lagos. The workers established a Joint Executive consisting of trade union leaders. They demanded a 50% COLAs and a minimum daily wage of 2s. 6d. for unskilled public sector workers. In a letter forwarded to the colonial government, the workers promised to go on strike, if their demands were not met by June 21, 1945. In the midst of this potential industrial conflict, Mr. Michael Imoudu returned to Lagos. The Defence Regulation, under which Imoudu had been banished to Auchi, had expired with the end of WWII. Hence, the colonial government had to release him. The workers used the occasion to mobilize for the proposed strike. A massive workers' march and rally was arranged for June 2nd to give Imoudu a hero’s welcome. In the June 2nd welcome rally, Herbert Macaulay, the president of the NCNC and Nnamdi Azikiwe, the NCNC secretary, both spoke in favour of the proposed general strike and Imoudu's leadership. So also did Madam Alimotu Pelewura, the Alaga of Ereko market and president of the Lagos Market Women Association. The colonial government was concerned about the turbulent marriage of nationalist politics and industrial struggle. Hence, it immediately made an official response to the workers' demands. 

In a June 11th letter, the colonial government argued that it could not grant the workers' demand for a COLAs revision and minimum daily wage because such wage awards would lead to wage-push inflation. The colonial government proposed instead that unemployed workers should return back to the rural farms to increase food production. Workers were advised to cooperate with the government's price reduction measures and concentrate on making the Pullen market scheme a success. Finally, the colonial government argued that its revenue was small and therefore, it could not afford to pay increased wages and COLAs to public sector workers unless it also increased taxes. The workers did not accept the colonial government's arguments. Therefore, they began to agitate for higher wages. 

The colonial government reminded the Joint Executive that the proposed general strike was illegal under the Defence Regulation banning strikes before all arbitration procedures had been exhausted. The Labour department threatened that the law would be followed to the letter if an illegal general strike occurred on June 21st.  In the face of this threat, the Joint Executive proposed the postponement of the general strike to the workers. A militant group led by Imoudu refused to postpone the planned strike action. The rank-and-file workers supported this militant position. In a mass workers' meeting on June 21st, the workers decided to execute the general strike action as planned. On June 22nd, they organized a mass rally in the railway locomotive workshop. The general strike began as Imoudu and the militant trade unionists consolidated the rank-and-file workers. The workers independently moved to ensure the success of the general strike action. The colonial government declared a No work No Pay policy and promised to sack workers who went on strike. The workers ignored the government. The general strike spread throughout the nation, starting from Lagos. The news was carried along the railway line by locomotive drivers. In the provincial centers, railway workers also led the general strike. All the members of the Joint Executive resigned to avoid arrest as the general strike began. The strike lasted for 44 days from June 21st to August 15th of 1945.

The 1945 general strike brought about the temporary unity of all labouring classes. The Daily Comet and the West African Pilot supported the strike and were later banned by the colonial government. The NCNC also supported the striking workers as did the market women and other unwaged workers. In Eastern Nigeria, the landlords refused to collect any rent and the market women sold food at reduced prices. A strike fund was organized and market women donated to it generously. In northern Nigeria, the market women also donated to a strike fund. Lagos market women reduced their food prices and attended the mass workers meetings to give moral and political support to the workers during the duration of the strike.

The colonial government did not take the general strike lying down. It employed tactics of misinformation with the aid of the Nigerian Youth Movement (NYM). Dr. Akintola Maja, the NYM President, set up a “Maja Peace Committee” to convince workers to end the strike. Trade union leaders were arrested. When this failed to stop the strike, the colonial government reaffirmed its decision to sack all striking workers after August 1, 1945. A mass workers meeting was called to discuss the government’s latest threat. The ex-Joint Executive members and their supporters who wanted to terminate the strike action were a minority. Hence, it was determined that the strike would continue despite the government's threat of dismissal. However, the actions of the moderate trade union leaders was leading to disunity among the workers.  Hence, on August 4th, the general strike was terminated in Lagos. Workers in the provincial cities refused to believe that the strike action had been terminated by Lagos workers because of the prior misinformation by the colonial government. In Zaria, the workers refused to go back to work until Michael Imoudu traveled down there himself to inform the workers that news of the termination of the strike action was not just another government propaganda  designed to make them capitulate. The general strike finally ended in all parts of the country on August 15, 1945 and resulted in more than 2 million mandays lost.

In the negotiation following the general strike, the colonial government rejected the workers' demand for 50% COLAs. Instead, the government offered a 20% increase in COLAs to Lagos public sector workers, smaller COLAs increases to public sector workers in the provincial cities and a minimum daily wage of 2s. 3d. for unskilled public sector workers. It told the workers' representatives that if they rejected this offer, then it would withdraw the offer and refer the matter to a commission of enquiry. The workers' representatives rejected the offer after consultations with trade union leaders and rank and file workers. The colonial government therefore established a commission of enquiry in October of 1945. This commission became known as the Tudor-Davies Commission. The government did not withdraw its initial offer after the workers' representatives rejected it. Rather, it granted the workers a 20% increase in COLAs and a minimum wage of 2s. 3d. backdated to August 1, 1945. The mandays lost during the strike were discarded as leave days without pay by the colonial government. Thus, the workers won a COLAs and wage increase after the general strike. These gains increased after the Tudor-Davies Commission finished its enquiry into the effects of the war inflation.

The terms of reference of the Tudor-Davies Commission were: “To consider the representation made by the Nigerian Government and Native Authority employees concerning an increase in the Cost of Living and, having regard to the present cost of living and all other factors, to make recommendations as to whether any action should be taken by the Nigerian Government, whether by variation of the Cost of Living Allowance or  by controlling the cost of living or any other way, and to make recommendations as to the future compilation and computation of cost of living indices in Nigeria.”

In its report, the Tudor Davies commission stated that the colonial government should have kept its 1942 promise to review the cost of living. It rejected the government's arguments of wage-push inflation and limited government revenue. It decided that the limited nature of the government revenue did not negate the validity of the workers' claim for increased COLAs. It advised the government to change its priorities with regards to the allocation of government revenue so that it could pay the increased COLAs without raising taxes. It pointed out that the government has paid COLA to European workers. The commission recommended a 50% increase in COLAs for all public sector workers (African Staff) with annual wages of less than £220 and a review of COLAs every two years. Finally, the commission concluded that “It is apparent that the influence and power of the Nigerian Trade Unions for good or ill should not be underestimated, for if their organizational strength - financial and numerical - is small, what may be termed their operational strength is great.” 

The colonial government accepted the recommendations and implemented them. It also established Wage Councils to determine future wage awards and a National Negotiating Committee to settle industrial disputes in the public sector by arbitration. Rent Assessment Boards were given more powers to enforce stricter rent control measures. The government appointed a Registrar of Trade Unions to supervise the growth of the trade unions and hired a former British TUC member as a labor officer. The 1945 general strike thus brought economic gains to the Nigerian working class. The initial 20% increase in existing COLAs and a minimum daily wage of 2s. 3d. were followed by a 50% increase in COLAs. The income of workers increased and this gave them the means to actualize their economic self-development at a higher level. 

A national general strike as a weapon in the arsenal of Nigerian workers in struggle. It is the historical response of labour to unprovoked jabs from the Nigerian government in the midst of an inflationary economy. Given the prevailing harsh economic conditions facing workers in the country, Nigerian workers should be organized to do the needful.

 

THE Tinubu administration picked up the courage to implement the Oronsaye Report on restructuring the federal public service and cutting cost of governance. It was a courage lacking in his two immediate predecessors.

The Report recommends the merger of 220 of the 541 agencies, reducing agencies from 263 to 161. In all, 31 agencies are to be abolished, 54 merged, and 14 reversed to their previous status in the ministries. It is not clear yet how much of the Report will be implemented, but it is off to a good start.

The architect of the reforms is Stephen Osagiede Oronsaye, a rather conservative public servant who was appointed Head of the Civil Service of the Federation in June 2009 and left office on retirement on November 16, 2009. As Head of Service, he had pushed through a new policy limiting terms of permanent secretaries and directors to eight years. Armed with this, he forced nine permanent secretaries and some directors to retire from service.

Impressed by this unprecedented reform in the service, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan appointed him to head a team that would reform the public service. His team turned out an 800-page document that became known as the Oronsaye Report. But Jonathan found it too hot to handle and dropped it like hot potato.

 President Muhammadu Buhari came into power singing an anthem of change. After a number of declarations and vows to implement the report, he dropped it.

Oronsaye, himself, might not be too happy with the country. He supported an Executive Bill presented to the National Assembly in 2013 for the creation of an Independent Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit outside the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC. A visibly angry EFCC opposed the bill. Shortly after, it accused Oronsaye of carrying out a N190 million pension fraud back in 2010-2011. Two years later, he was hauled before the courts and, for the next eight years, dragged before two different judges before a third, Justice Iyang Ekwo discharged and acquitted him.

The judge ruled that the entire investigation and subsequent arraignment of the reformer, was a witch-hunt. He had wondered how, over the years, Oronsaye was not even availed a copy of the petition against him, so he had no way of responding or defending himself against the charges.

In a sense, the commencement of the implementation of his 12-year Report is a further vindication of the 74-year-old Oronsaye.

There have been some controversy about the decision to implement the Report with some accusing Tinubu of seeking to divert attention from the punishing economic crises Nigerians are going through. However, for me, the issues of reform, change and effective service delivery to the populace, should not be wished away or thrown out purely on such basis. I also do not buy the argument that rather than implement Oronsaye, the administration should concentrate on creation of more jobs. I do not see both as being mutually exclusive. Again, those who argue that we need more, not less agencies, have missed the point because the multiplication of bureaucracy does not translate to more government.

If anything, so long as the implementation does not result in job loses, I think it is not even going far enough. For instance, I do not see the reason for the existence of the Police and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps as two distinct civil security bodies.

It makes a lot of sense to me that the Directorate of Technical Cooperation in Africa and Directorate of Technical Aid Corps are merged under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission also brought under the Ministry. Why should the National Metallurgical Development Centre and National Metallurgical Training Institute be different agencies or, the Nigeria Army build a university separate from the Nigeria Defence Academy?

I think those who claim that with the implementation of the Oronsaye Report, the Tinubu administration has begun the much- needed restructuring and cutting cost of governance, are widely off the mark. It is like claiming that because the domestic cat and the lion share a common ancestry and belong to the same feline family, they can be interchanged. In comparison, the Oronsaye Report Implementation is cosmetic.

To begin with, the Presidency is so ubiquitous, with so many officials and aides, that they can in themselves constitute a country. A supposed Federal Government has 68 items on the exclusive list, including fishing in local waters, police, marriage and divorce!

Despite being the economic capital of the country and housing a mega city, Lagos State is not allowed to create local governments that can service its populace. To be able to do so, is what true restructuring means.

Cutting cost of governance includes states being allowed to run only the local governments they need and not maintain the number imposed on them by military fiat.

Cutting the cost of governance includes making the legislative houses part-time. It should also include paying them basic allowances and total emoluments not higher than those of an assistant director in the ministry. To pay a senator N14 million monthly is the equivalent of the wages of 466 workers on the monthly National Minimum Wage of N30,000.

In a country like Cuba, senators receive no payments at all, and if they need to research, they approach the tertiary institutions to assist.

No serious country gives a single senator N21 billion as ‘constituency projects’ for which there are no competitive biddings, no specific projects approved and no proper accounting system. If we were to be serious with cutting cost, the Bicameral Legislature would give way by the scrapping of the 360-Member House of Representatives. Its duplicated functions can be carried out by the Senate.

An agency of massive wastage is the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. In some Third World countries like Venezuela, all the voter has to do is show up with his national identity card at any voting centre, cast his vote by touching the symbol of his preferred party as provided on the secluded screen. His vote is automatically counted.

In contrast, INEC developed temporary voters card which is then replaced by permanent voters card, display of voters list for every polling station, printing of voters cards, movement of non-sensitive electoral materials, followed by the sensitive materials which are escorted by armed security men. At the voting centre itself, it has deployed card readers, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS,and the INEC Result Viewing, IREV, portal. All these rigmarole, only to produce inconclusive or hotly disputed results.

To be serious about restructuring and cutting the cost of governance, we need to retrieve the Report of the 2014 National Conference just as the Oronsaye Report was dusted up.

There is no disputation that Naira abuse or more specifically the act of spraying money at social events has become an acceptable norm or cultural practice in Nigeria. Nigerians have a cultural affinity for lavish social gatherings. Many people regard these occasions as a means of displaying social status and wealth. Spraying Naira notes, and other currency notes, at events progressively appears to be the ultimate way to flaunt your social standing.

Even burials that are supposed to be sober moments have been turned into considerable fanfare. This has created a new industry of mint note trading and events management. All of these constitute the social infrastructure of Naira abuse. A new dimension of the social infrastructure of Naira abuse is the arrival to the scene of the nouveau rich. Society has labelled them with all sorts of terminology: Yahoo Boys, Yahoo Plus, and 419.

Nigeria has since recognised the dangers of Naira abuse but that is not the focus of this piece. The government has made rules and laws to check it and provided enlightenment campaigns to educate people. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) gave Naira abuse as one of the reasons why it is pushing for digital-based financial transactions. Naira abuse, like its ancestor-mother social epidemic of corruption, has remained stubborn and refused to go away.

There is ambiguity about what constitutes Naira abuse. Section 21 of the CBN Act 2007 clearly defines Naira abuse and prescribes various punishments to deter citizens from abusing the Naira. They include – spraying banknotes at events; writing on banknotes; stapling banknotes; tearing banknotes; dancing or stamping on Naira; defacing the bank notes with substances or ink, oil; selling currency banknotes; mutilation of the Naira note; money bouquets. However, law enforcement has been lax. It is commonly believed that the laws against Naira abuse are either symbolic or desuetude because no one is held accountable, everyone gets away with it, and things have normalised.

 

The social phenomena of Naira abuse, especially the spraying of money, have become an epidemic in Nigeria. Lately, it is of significant concern. We have exported this to many parts of the world, and social media is replete with evidence of this in weddings and other social events attended by Nigerians in different parts of the world.

Malcolm Gladwell’s book, “The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference” explores the idea that social phenomena, like trends and epidemics, often reach a tipping point where they suddenly become widespread. He identifies three key factors that contribute to this tipping point: the Law of the Few (the idea that a small number of people have a disproportionate influence), the Stickiness Factor (how messages or ideas stick in the minds of people), and the Power of Context (how the environment influences behaviour).

Through engaging anecdotes and research, Gladwell illustrates how understanding these factors can help individuals and organisations create or manipulate trends and epidemics. The book emphasises the importance of attention to small details and understanding the social dynamics behind spreading ideas and behaviours. The fundamental concepts of the book about Naira Abuse are twofold. First, the cultural context or external environment provides the soil for bad or good behaviour to grow and spread. Second, key people with remarkable personalities can cause or stop social epidemics because of their social profile or social network.

 

There is a link between the recommendation of Malcolm Gladwell and the arrest and prosecution of Idris Okuneye better known as Bobrisky, a cross-dresser and social influencer, for Naira abuse, and the arrest and ongoing prosecution of Cubana Chief priest Pascal Okechukwu in connection with Naira abuse. Why selectively arrest the duo when everybody is involved in some form of Naira abuse either by trampling, spraying, mutilation or rumpling? It is nearly impossible for any law enforcement organisation to find and apprehend every perpetrator. Resources exist in limited supply. It is simple wisdom to begin with people who have disproportionate influence. This is perhaps what EFCC has done.

The first common ground is that both of them enjoy considerable social media influence whether for positive or negative reasons depending on your value system. These two cases, though similar, are following different paths. Bobrisky, in court, pleaded guilty and has since been handed six months imprisonment. Cubana Chief Priest did not plead guilty, so his case will go to full trial, putting the law to the test. This court case will assist us in providing answers to some critical questions: what are the societal ramifications of Naira spraying, and how can Naira misuse be proven? Is there a need to amend the existing law and make it more relevant to the challenge? Will this fresh wave of enforcement stop the epidemic of Naira abuse? Regardless of how the legal proceedings turn out, they have highlighted how important it is to take the triplet societal plague of poor social behaviour, Naira abuse, and their ancestor-mother corruption very seriously.

I have identified six pillars to control or stop Naira abuse: Fight corruption because it is an enabler for abuse of the Naira. The incestuous relationship between corruption, illicit financial transactions and Naira abuse is well established. Second, the government should deepen knowledge and change people’s orientation by embarking on mass enlightenment, people must understand clearly what constitutes Naira abuse and what the punishment is for such offence. Third, address cultural issues relating to Naira abuse through community engagement. People gifting money to celebrants on occasions is no crime but the manner of gifting is the issue. Fourth, the government should renew the push for digital transactions. Fifth, the government must strengthen the structures of law enforcement. It is not just a police and EFCC matter. The judiciary must upend its knowledge of the subject matter. Sixth, the government must be impartial and objectively enforce the law to change cultural norms and public behaviour that defaces the Naira. This may entail revisiting and improving the law.

The CBN, Police and the EFCC should study different models of changing public behaviour in the past and draw up a model and strategy to deal with the issue of Naira abuse, especially since it has become embedded in some cultures. Good examples abound abroad and in Nigeria. The British government employed various strategies to change public behaviour regarding spitting and other personal vices. Spitting in public places was prohibited by local bylaws or municipal regulations but it is social persuasion that gave the result. These laws serve as deterrents and can result in fines or other penalties for offenders. They launched public awareness campaigns, collaborated with community stakeholders, and monitored and enforced the law. However, most of all, they leveraged social norms and peer pressure to influence behaviour and encourage individuals to conform to accepted standards of behaviour by highlighting the societal consensus against spitting and certain destructive behaviours and showcasing positive role models who embody desirable conduct. Today, the practice of spitting publicly, urinating on the road corners, and other public nuisances are controlled to the barest minimum.
In Nigeria, good examples of efforts to change public behaviour can be seen around us. Most were successful to a greater degree. The government should revisit some of these campaigns and learn from them.

 

A model that seems to be working in Akwa Ibom State is the State Ethical and Attitudinal Reorientation initiative. Before 1999, the Akwa Ibom people experienced a severe social epidemic, “The Pervasive and prevalent House help Syndrome,” which gained widespread notoriety and led to the dubbed moniker “Ekaette” for nearly every female domestic helper. The administration of Obong Attah took up the task of reorienting the Akwa Ibom people’s mindset. He established the Ethical and Attitudinal Reorientation Commission (EARCOM) in Akwa Ibom and gave them the responsibility of raising public awareness about the importance of “minoring” vices and “majoring” in moral principles.

The struggle has persisted throughout the regimes, and Pastor Umo Eno’s present administration appears to be taking it to newer, more profound heights by hiring assistants for each ward and unit and charging them to carry out the commission’s work of value reorientation in remote areas. As bait, he is using the incentivisation and social support model, drawing on the country’s current food and hunger crisis to reach out with the message of value reorientation. Today, a negligible number of Akwa Ibom daughters are house helpers, and the majority are highflyers in the professions and business.

The success story of Akwa Ibom is a model that the federal government can replicate. Changing public behaviour requires a multifaceted approach that combines legislation, education, community engagement, social support and enforcement efforts. By addressing the underlying factors contributing to undesirable behaviours and promoting positive alternatives, governments can effectively shape public attitudes and foster a more socially responsible society.

[TheCable]
 
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